The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Instead, much of the bounce appears to be tied to special forms of pay for high ‑income workers, such as bonuses and stock  compensation. Booming Stock Market Driving Income Growth. The recent run ‑up in the stock market, which appears tied to optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, is a primary driver of the rapid growth in pay to high ‑income workers.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Ongoing, the Governor ’s spending ‑related solutions provide $5  billion in savings within a few years. Appendix 1 provides a list of the Governor ’s budget solutions. Generates $5.6 Billion School and Community College Settle‑Up Obligation in 2025‑26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2024-25 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

Mar 20, 2024 - Supplemental Pensions Payments Employers May Contribute Any Amount of Money Above What Is Required. Pension boards determine —either according to actuarial standards or statutory requirements —how much money employers must contribute to the pension system each year to address any existing unfunded liabilities.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4887

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - In this publication we: provide an overview of the 2025 ‑26 budget package, give a brief description of how the budget process unfolded, and then highlight the major features of the budget approved by the Legislature and signed by the Governor.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Proposals

Apr 26, 2021 - Figure 1 True Up Provisions. Under Proposition  2 ’s “true up ” provisions, the state reevaluates the BSA estimate twice: once in each two subsequent budgets. Under these reevaluations, the state revises the BSA deposit up or down if capital gains taxes were higher or lower than the state ’s prior estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4418

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - This is about $5  billion larger than the budget problem anticipated by the administration in June,  despite improvements in revenue. This is because constitutional spending requirements under Proposition  98 (1988) and Proposition  2 (2014) almost entirely offset revenue gains.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - There are signs of similar market overexuberance related to AI happening now. At this point, stock prices are trading at a rich premium relative to corporate profits. Moreover, investors have been aggressive in taking on high levels of margin debt (borrowing to buy stocks), which has reached approximately three times the historical norm.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - The forthcoming Appendix 2 and 3 will also provide a complete list of the savings, spending, and tax expenditure proposals. Savings Proposals Generates $1.6 Billion School and Community College Settle‑Up Obligation in 2024‑25.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - For example, we recommend the Legislature: Do Not Suspend the $3  Billion True Up Into the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). The Governor ’s budget proposes suspending a roughly $3  billion true-up deposit that otherwise would be required in 2025-26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - This change need not occur immediately as it will take time for the state to build up reserves through future economic cycles. As such, we suggest the Legislature ask the voters to authorize a scheduled, phased‑in increase: 20 percent to take effect immediately after the next statewide election, 25 percent in 2030, and increasing by 5 percent every five years until the cap reaches a maximum of 50 percent in 2055.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028