California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - Figure 3 General Fund Condition Under Fiscal Outlook (In Millions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - We Estimate the Administration Solved a Larger Budget Problem —$58   Billion. While the Governor cited a budget problem of $38  billion, we estimate the administration solved a budget problem of $58  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - The administration projects the budget faces a roughly $3  billion deficit. This is lower than our November Fiscal Outlook estimate of an $18  billion deficit, for two offsetting reasons. First, and most importantly, the administration ’s revenue estimate is considerably higher than ours because it does not incorporate the strong risk of a stock market downturn.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2024-25 Budget: Deficit Update

Feb 20, 2024 - The 2024-25 Budget: Deficit Update Deficit Update Under LAO Revenue Update, Budget Problem Grows by $15  Billion The state already faces a significant deficit this year — we estimate it totaled $58 billion under the administration’s revenue forecast at the time the Governor’s budget was proposed in January.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4850

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version) Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version) Appendix 4: Large One-Time and Temporary Augmentations Transportation Appendix 4, Figure 1 Remaining Large One ‑Time and Temporary Augmentations From the 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23 Budget Packages: Business and Labor General Fund (In millions) Begin new information technology overhaul
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788/4

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2023-24 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Nov 8, 2023 - (In addition, the program receives roughly $3  million annually in federal AmeriCorps funding.) The program provides funding to local “host partner ” agencies —including cities, universities, tribes, and community-based organizations —to hire individuals who are at least 18 years of age to serve as fellows for up to 11 months.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4814

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - In January, we estimated that the budget problem under the administration ’s assumptions was $58  billion. The budget problem is now slightly lower —$55  billion. There are four notable factors contributing to this difference.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902