How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - The dot-com example below illustrates this pattern. In practice, this means the state could see continued but weakened revenue growth for some time after a correction before the outlook turns clearly negative.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - The dot-com example below illustrates this pattern. In practice, this means the state could see continued but weakened revenue growth for some time after a correction before the outlook turns clearly negative.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

The 2025-26 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - The 2025-26 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook The 2025 ‑26 Budget Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook Summary. This post describes our fiscal outlook for General Fund spending in Medi-Cal. Under our outlook, General Fund support grows from the 2024 ‑25 enacted level of $35  billion to $48.8  billion in 2028 ‑29 —an average annual rate of growth of 8.6  percent.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4941

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2023 - We discuss our economic and revenue outlook in greater detail here: The 2023‑24 Budget: May Revenue Outlook . Lower revenues result in a larger budget problem. Lower Constitutional Requirements. Coupled with our lower revenue estimates, we  also estimate that spending on constitutional requirements is correspondingly lower by $4.8  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4772

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook Executive Summary The Fiscal Outlook gives the Legislature our independent estimates and analysis of the state ’s budget condition for the 2025 ‑26 budget process.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - As we described in our November Fiscal Outlook , the recent stronger-than-expected revenue trends are almost entirely explained by the personal income tax (PIT), which has seen double digit growth this year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2022-23 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - The 2022-23 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook The 2022‑23 Budget Medi ‑Cal Fiscal Outlook This post describes our fiscal outlook for Medi ‑Cal, the major factors that we expect to drive changes in General Fund spending in Medi ‑Cal, and a number of our key underlying assumptions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4474

The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - The 2026-27 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook Medi ‑Cal Fiscal Outlook Summary Medi ‑Cal Spending Increases in LAO Outlook. The 2025 ‑26 Budget Act provided Medi ‑Cal $44.9  billion General Fund support, an all ‑time high for the program.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5092

The 2023-24 Budget: May Revenue Outlook [EconTax Blog]

May 13, 2023 - In the last 30 years, comparable two-quarter declines have occurred only around the Dot-Com Recession and the Great Recession. Similarly, income tax withholding (the largest component of income tax collections) has declined 5 percent so far this year, a stark departure from the double digit growth of the preceding two years.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/774