California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - While the state neared this cap in the 2019 ‑20 budget, the cap has only been operative twice: in 2022 ‑23 and 2023 ‑24. All  told, had there not been a cap on constitutional deposits, the state would have deposited about $2  billion more in reserves.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - The state ’s appropriations subject to the limit fell substantially during the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s and again during the Great Recession due to the significant decline in state revenues during those downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Similarly, the number of Californians who are unemployed is 25  percent higher than during the strong labor markets of 2019 and 2022. Consumer spending (measured by inflation ‑adjusted retail sales and taxable sales) has continued to decline throughout  2024.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Suspension Proposal

Jan 29, 2021 - The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Suspension Proposal The Governor ’s Suspension Proposal Background The 2019 ‑20 Budget Made Several Programs ’ Costs or Augmentations Subject to Suspension. In the 2019 ‑20 May Revision, the administration anticipated an operating deficit would emerge —absent further actions —under its multiyear projections.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4328

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Proposals

Apr 26, 2021 - Across the budget window, the state would need to make required BSA deposits of $7.6  billion, which has three components: $1  Billion True Up for 2019 ‑20. Under the administration ’s revenue estimates, the state would need to make a true up deposit of $1  billion in 2019 ‑20.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4418

The 2021-22 Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Sep 23, 2021 - To be eligible, a firm ’s gross receipts must have dropped by at least 20  percent from 2019 to 2020. Firms that file taxes on a fiscal year basis must have incurred a decline of 20  percent or more in 2018 ‑19 as compared to either (1)  2019 ‑20 or (2)  the average of 2019 ‑20 and 2020 ‑21.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4452