California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - By shifting payments to the next fiscal year, these deferrals create one‑time savings in 2025‑26. Similar to other forms of borrowing, undoing these deferrals in the future (and reverting payments to their typical schedule) will require the state to provide one‑time back payments to the universities.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - As such, our independent fiscal assessment underlies the Legislature ’s ability to assert an informed check on the executive branch, making any added complexity from diverging estimates a worthwhile trade-off.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Several historically reliable signs suggest the stock market is overheated and at high risk of reversing course into a downturn in the next year or so. Should a stock market downturn occur, income tax revenues would fall considerably.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - In the past, these patterns have been a sign that a stock market downturn will occur in the next couple of years. There certainly is some chance that this time is different and such a downturn is not forthcoming.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Outside of government and health care, the state has added no jobs in a year and a half. Similarly, the number of Californians who are unemployed is 25  percent higher than during the strong labor markets of 2019 and 2022.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - As it shows, we estimate our recommendations would allow the state to cover about three ‑quarters of funding shortfalls over the next 50 years. These Recommendations Are an Honest Reflection of Revenue Volatility.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Finally, although we have not previously recommended the Leg islature take decisive action to address the structural deficits, the state ’s persistent fiscal imbalance and the added downside risks —particularly from potential federal actions —suggest a need for a more proactive approach.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2024-25 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2024 - Overall, this figure shows that the state budget is likely balanced over the next couple of years, but a budget problem becomes more likely in later years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4907

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - To prepare for next year ’s budget, the Legislature will need to weigh its suite of ongoing, or core, program commitments and determine their relative priority. Evaluating Program Success Challenging.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983