California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - During the special session, the Legislature added Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act providing up to $2.5  billion one ‑time for response and recovery costs related to the January 2025 Southern California wildfires.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - As such, our independent fiscal assessment underlies the Legislature ’s ability to assert an informed check on the executive branch, making any added complexity from diverging estimates a worthwhile trade-off.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Finally, although we have not previously recommended the Leg islature take decisive action to address the structural deficits, the state ’s persistent fiscal imbalance and the added downside risks —particularly from potential federal actions —suggest a need for a more proactive approach.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2023-24 Budget: Considering Inflation's Effects on State Programs

Nov 16, 2022 - Lowers Quality of Services. In other budget areas, inflation can result in a reduction of quality, rather than quantity, of services. For example, in county administration of human services programs, less state funding in real terms can mean local governments have lower staffing levels.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4647

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Outside of government and health care, the state has added no jobs in a year and a half. Similarly, the number of Californians who are unemployed is 25  percent higher than during the strong labor markets of 2019 and 2022.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

New Inflation Poses Not So New Budget Risk

Dec 15, 2022 - Absent a change in the appropriated level of funding, high inflation will result in a lower quantity or quality of state services than what the Legislature initially intended. Yet, to the degree that the Legislature were to offset this erosion with supplemental appropriations, it would exacerbate the deficit problem estimated in our fiscal outlook.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4653

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - This  includes Chapter  60 of 2023 (S B  149 , Caballero and Becker), which authorizes some types of infrastructure projects —including certain energy, semiconductor and microelectronic; transportation; and water ‑related projects —to receive streamlined judicial review under the California Environmental Quality Act.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788

The 2021-22 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit

Aug 30, 2021 - The 2021-22 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit The 2021-22 California Spending Plan The State Appropriations Limit In the late 1970s, voters passed Proposition  4 (1979), which added Article XIIIB to the State Constitution.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4449

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 27, 2021 - The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version) Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version) Appendix: Discretionary Spending Proposals Criminal Justice: Discretionary Spending Proposals in the 2021 ‑22 Budget Package General Fund (In Millions) Augmentation to California Violence Intervention and Prevention Program ­ — One ‑Time Augmentation to Adult Reentry Grant — Funding for
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4448/1