The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Key proposals include limiting provider overtime and travel hours in the IHSS program (about $700  million, growing to nearly $900  million), reducing Medi ‑Cal payments to clinics that serve patients with unsatisfactory immigration status ($450  million, growing to $1.1  billion), and eliminating certain long ‑term care facility benefits for this population (about $300  million, growing to $800  million).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - This includes proposals to: (1)  remove the state ’s share of costs associated with growth in IHSS hours per case, which we estimate could save $650  million by 2029 ‑30 (if hours continue to grow at their current rates); (2)  make an ongoing reduction to the Middle Class Scholarship program, which generates $541  million in savings beginning in
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - Middle Class Scholarships (MCS) Arrears Budgeting ($1 Billion). The budget package reflects $1 billion in savings by deferring recognition of MCS program costs from 2025‑26 to 2026‑27 on a budgetary basis.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Suspension Proposal

Jan 29, 2021 - (Under current law, these payment increases are subject to suspension on July 1, 2021 r ather than December 31, 2021.) Restoration of In ‑Home Supportive Services (IHSS) Service Hours. During the last recession, the state reduced IHSS service hours, but the Legislature reversed this reduction in every year since 2015 ‑16.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4328

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Sep 6, 2024 - After approving the budget act, the Legislature ratified an MOU between the state and the union representing CalFire that includes additional provisions to implement the 66‑hour duty week. The terms of this agreement will increase these costs as the reduction in duty week hours is put in place beyond the amounts envisioned in the budget act.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4922

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - AI Enthusiasm Boosting Revenues, but for How Long? Middling Corporation and Sales Tax Collections in Line With Generally Weak Economic Conditions. Both the California and U.S. economies currently face significant headwinds.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - Figure 1 The State ’s New Wall of Debt (In Billions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - While this slowdown has been gradual and the severity milder than a recession, a look at recent economic data —as in Figure  1 —paints a picture of a sluggish economy. Outside of government and health care, the state has added no jobs in a year and a half.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - As shown in Figure 1, reserves can be saved when revenues are surging (the green regions) and then spent when revenues decline below that long‑term trajectory (the red regions). Importantly, this hypothetical—and the estimates of core services in this report—only speak to reserve policy on one side of the budget, that is, excluding the budget devoted to schools and community colleges.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028