California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - But even if the stock market boom persists for longer and revenues ultimately exceed our forecast, the solutions adopted to balance the budget using more cautious revenue assumptions should not be viewed as unnecessary.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - During the special session, the Legislature added Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act providing up to $2.5  billion one ‑time for response and recovery costs related to the January 2025 Southern California wildfires.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - As such, our independent fiscal assessment underlies the Legislature ’s ability to assert an informed check on the executive branch, making any added complexity from diverging estimates a worthwhile trade-off.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Finally, although we have not previously recommended the Leg islature take decisive action to address the structural deficits, the state ’s persistent fiscal imbalance and the added downside risks —particularly from potential federal actions —suggest a need for a more proactive approach.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Outside of government and health care, the state has added no jobs in a year and a half. Similarly, the number of Californians who are unemployed is 25  percent higher than during the strong labor markets of 2019 and 2022.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2024-25 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

Mar 20, 2024 - In the case of the state ’s supplemental pension payments to CalPERS made under Proposition  2, the state has chosen to direct the recent payments toward longer amortization bases, resulting in more total savings over a longer period, rather than maximizing near ‑term benefits.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4887

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2023 - Multiyear One ‑Time and Temporary Spending Commitments No Longer Affordable. In 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23, the Legislature committed to future one ‑time and temporary spending in 2023 ‑24 and beyond. Most of this spending no longer appears to be affordable.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4772

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - The State Appropriations Limit Introduction In the late 1970s, voters passed Proposition  4 (1979), which added Article XIIIB to the State Constitution. Article XIIIB established an appropriations limit on the state and most types of local governments.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

A Framework for Allocating Federal Recovery Funds

May 4, 2021 - Maximize Longer-Term Benefits To maximize the longer-term benefits of this funding, we recommend the Legislature consider using a portion to prepare for inevitable future challenges. In addition to addressing preexisting challenges discussed above, below we lay out some specific examples of pandemic-specific issues we think are worth considering.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4422

Strong Tax Collections Belie California's Challenging Fiscal Outlook

Apr 26, 2022 - Longer term, state policymakers still likely will need to weigh fundamental questions about the size of state government and whether to seek a voter-approved amendment to Proposition  4. What About Downside Risk?
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4590