California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible. The middle of the range, which becomes our main revenue forecast, is thus lower than if we did not include the stock market risk indicator.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - During the special session, the Legislature added Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act providing up to $2.5  billion one ‑time for response and recovery costs related to the January 2025 Southern California wildfires.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Our analysis suggests this level of revenue is quite unlikely —there is only a one ‑in ‑five chance the state can afford that spending level. Baseline Budget More Likely to Be Affordable in Coming Years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - As such, our independent fiscal assessment underlies the Legislature ’s ability to assert an informed check on the executive branch, making any added complexity from diverging estimates a worthwhile trade-off.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Finally, although we have not previously recommended the Leg islature take decisive action to address the structural deficits, the state ’s persistent fiscal imbalance and the added downside risks —particularly from potential federal actions —suggest a need for a more proactive approach.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Suspension Proposal

Jan 29, 2021 - Both our office and the administration anticipate an operating deficit is quite likely to emerge in the coming years. In our November Fiscal Outlook , we found the state faces large and growing multiyear operating deficits over the outlook period.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4328

The 2022-23 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2022 - These findings are quite similar to the Department of Finance’s ( DOF’s) estimates . Under the administration’s assumptions, the state would have two years of narrow operating surpluses and one year of an operating deficit.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4602

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Outside of government and health care, the state has added no jobs in a year and a half. Similarly, the number of Californians who are unemployed is 25  percent higher than during the strong labor markets of 2019 and 2022.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Proposals

Apr 26, 2021 - This means the level would not quite reach the pre-COVID-19 total.) Across the budget window, the state would need to make required BSA deposits of $7.6  billion, which has three components: $1  Billion True Up for 2019 ‑20.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4418

The 2021-22 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit

Aug 30, 2021 - The 2021-22 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit The 2021-22 California Spending Plan The State Appropriations Limit In the late 1970s, voters passed Proposition  4 (1979), which added Article XIIIB to the State Constitution.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4449