California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - To do this, we add a stock market indicator to our forecast models alongside other the economic variables. The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Looking back, some recessions, such as the early 1990s recession, have been harsher economically for the state as a whole than they have been from a state budget standpoint. Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Three of those —the recession in the early 1990s, the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s, and the Great Recession —resulted in large revenue shortfalls and ensuing multiyear deficits, even for some years after each recession ended.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - The Special Fund for Economic Uncertainties (SFEU) is a general ‑purpose reserve commonly used to provide capacity for unanticipated expenditures, including state costs associated with disasters and other emergencies.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Possible Paths to a Broader Economic Recovery. Over the coming months, if California ’s labor market and consumers begin to show signs of a broadening recovery, the state ’s fiscal position is likely to be on better footing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - The state ’s appropriations subject to the limit fell substantially during the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s and again during the Great Recession due to the significant decline in state revenues during those downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - Certain programs are more susceptible to external factors like federal policy changes, demographic shifts, or economic trends. In some cases, programs are designed intentionally to respond to these factors.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - The administration ’s revenue estimates flow from the specific economic scenario that it deems most likely to unfold. But since macroeconomic dynamics are multifaceted and context dependent, successfully predicting the scenario that will play out is virtually impossible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938