The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook Executive Summary Not Safe to Bet Artificial Intelligence ( AI) Fueled Exuberance Is Sustainable. Both the California and U.S. economies currently face significant headwinds.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - In this way, our approach represents a hedge; estimated revenues are not as low as they would be in an outright downturn, nor are they as high as is possible if there is no downturn. This differs from the approach taken by the Governor.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget [Publication Details]

Jan 12, 2026 - On January 9, 2026, Governor Newsom’s administration presented its proposed state budget to the California Legislature. In this report, we provide a high-level summary and our initial analysis of the Governor’s budget based on our preliminary review (as of January 10). Assembly Budget Handout (PDF) Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Handout (PDF)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5101

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Instead, much of the bounce appears to be tied to special forms of pay for high ‑income workers, such as bonuses and stock  compensation. Booming Stock Market Driving Income Growth. The recent run ‑up in the stock market, which appears tied to optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, is a primary driver of the rapid growth in pay to high ‑income workers.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - In some cases, however, basic data tracking of high-level outcomes and/or metrics of program delivery are available. For example, programs typically have information about the rate of expenditure, number of people served, and services provided.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983

New Inflation Poses Not So New Budget Risk

Dec 15, 2022 - In addition, with the inflationary conditions in mind, we undertook a separate analysis examining how high inflation interacts with various types of state budget expenditures. These analyses allow us to evaluate two key questions that come to mind in light of the current period of high inflation.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4653

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - Below, we provide a high ‑level summary of these measures. Funding for the January 2025 Southern California Wildfires. During the special session, the Legislature added Control Sections 90.00 and 90.01 to the 2024 ‑25 Budget Act providing up to $2.5  billion one ‑time for response and recovery costs related to the January 2025 Southern California wildfires.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - Loans from the fund could be actively managed to keep liquidity relatively high while managing downside risk. Conclusion There are advantages and disadvantages of California ’s existing revenue structure.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Whereas for the first two decades of this century expenditures averaged 5.9 percent of total personal income, they climbed to a four-decade high of 8 percent in 2022-23. Neither recent revenue trends nor the elevated spending level they supported were expected to represent a new normal, however.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762