Cap-and-Invest: November 2025 Auction Update and 2026-27 Budget Context

Dec 9, 2025 - Revenues May Not Be Sufficient to Fully Support Statutory Allocations and Legislative Intent for 2026-27 … As illustrated in Figure  1, cap-and-invest auction revenues have varied across months and years, and multiple influencing factors make them difficult to predict.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5096

The 2026-27 Budget: Cap-and-Invest Expenditure Plan

Feb 10, 2026 - Assessment Administration’s Revenue Estimates Appear Reasonable, but GGRF Revenues Remain Difficult to Predict. Based on currently available information, DOF’s 2026‑27 GGRF revenue forecast appears reasonable.However, GGRF revenues are inherently somewhat unpredictable.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5114

The 2024-25 Budget: Sustainable Funding for the Department of Pesticide Regulation

Mar 5, 2024 - For instance, a single tax rate is easier for the state to administer and offers a more predictable revenue stream. It  also is simpler and more predictable for the entities that pay the tax. A flat increase also aligns with the recommendations in the independent contractor ’s report.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4873

The 2025-26 Budget: Cap-and-Trade Expenditure Plan

Feb 12, 2025 - Predicting how the cap ‑and ‑trade market will behave and forecasting corresponding GGRF revenues are always subject to some uncertainty. However, a couple of factors may contribute to more uncertainty than usual for this exercise over the next several years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4960

Overview of New Updates to the Cap-and-Invest Program

Dec 9, 2025 - Accurately predicting the net effects of the extension of the cap ‑and ‑invest program on the Legislature ’s key policy priorities —such as GHG reduction and affordability —is difficult, if not impossible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5097

Climate Change Impacts Across California - Crosscutting Issues

Apr 5, 2022 - A recent scientific  study  by United States Geological Survey researchers predicted that under scenarios of three feet to six feet of sea‑level rise, up to two‑thirds of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4575

The 2024-25 Budget: Cap-and-Trade Expenditure Plan

Feb 20, 2024 - We believe DOF ’s new approach is likely to yield more accurate revenue predictions. We Estimate More GGRF Could Be Available for Discretionary Spending, but Projections Carry Considerable Uncertainty.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4847

A Framework for Evaluating State-Level Green Stimulus Proposals

Jan 5, 2021 - The unique nature of the current pandemic ‑driven recession makes it especially difficult to predict how long the current recession will last and how long it will take to reach full economic recovery.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4308

Cap-And-Trade Auction Update and GGRF Projections

Dec 6, 2021 - This market dynamic makes it difficult to predict future allowance prices and GGRF revenue. Stable Prices Would Generate Over $4   Billion in Total Annual Revenue. We estimate 2021 ‑22 and 2022 ‑23 auction revenue under three different allowance price scenarios, as shown in Figure  2 : Stable Prices (Base Forecast).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4480

California’s Cap-and-Trade Program: Frequently Asked Questions

Oct 24, 2023 - These dynamics make it difficult to predict with certainty how much revenue will be generated for GGRF in a given year. Figure  4 displays the fluctuations in auction revenues over the past few years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4811