The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook Executive Summary Not Safe to Bet Artificial Intelligence ( AI) Fueled Exuberance Is Sustainable. Both the California and U.S. economies currently face significant headwinds.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - Together, these scoring differences account for the roughly $27  billion difference in our office ’s accounting of the budget problem and the administration ’s scoring. While we would maintain that our approach more accurately reflects current law, these scoring differences do not reflect substantive differences in state ’s fiscal position.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - We understand that while the administration indicates it will provide this payment in the future—after the final calculation of the minimum funding requirement—it also has not scored this future obligation in its multiyear budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

The 2022-23 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit

Sep 30, 2022 - Final Budget Act. The final budget package does not reflect excess revenues across 2020-21 and 2021-22, nor does it include any unaddressed SAL requirements for 2022-23. In particular, as of July 2022, the administration estimates 2020-21 ended with appropriations subject to the limit above the limit by $16  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4631

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - These challenges would not be short-lived either. After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - As we discuss later in this brief, the May Revision maintains a cost ‑of ‑living adjustment (COLA) and other spending increases for schools and community colleges despite the drop in funding. Baseline Spending Higher by $12   Billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - The state will finalize its calculation of this obligation in May  2026. (In January and May, we had categorized settle up as a spending delay, but upon further deliberation, we view this action as borrowing.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - After accounting for a 5.35 percent statutory cost ‑of ‑living adjustment (COLA), deposits into the Proposition 98 reserve, and various other adjustments, we estimate the Legislature has $9.5 billion in ongoing funds available for allocation in 2022 ‑23.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2022-23 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges

Nov 17, 2021 - Finally, we assume districts ’ attendance eventually recovers by the equivalent of about 140,000 students relative to the drop in 2021 ‑22. Accounting for all these estimates and assumptions, statewide attendance would be approximately 5,925,000 students in 2025 ‑ 26 —slightly above the pre ‑pandemic level.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4473