California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - To do this, we add a stock market indicator to our forecast models alongside other the economic variables. The added risk variable weighs on the range of revenue outcomes that we view as most plausible.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Overview of American Rescue Plan: Implications for California [Publication Details]

Mar 18, 2021 - Presented to: Assembly Subcommittee No. 6 on Budget Process, Oversight and Program Evaluation Hon. Philip Y. Ting, Chair
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4405

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 16, 2023 - San Quentin Capital Outlay Projects to Support Development of the California Model. On May 5, 2023, Governor Newsom established an advisory council to recommend changes to San Quentin State Prison in order to help develop the California Model, which is broadly focused on promoting a more rehabilitative and health ‑focused environment in California prisons.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4788

The 2023-24 Budget: Considering Inflation's Effects on State Programs

Nov 16, 2022 - In the Department of Developmental Services (DDS), although the Legislature recently enacted a plan to support rate models developed in a 2019 study (and updated to 2021‑22 levels), under current law, providers would only receive rate adjustments based on future legislative decisions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4647

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - These models make a number of important assumptions. For example, we assume: The long ‑term trend of higher income growth among high ‑income Californians continues, resulting in faster growth in state revenues.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2022-23 Budget: State Appropriations Limit Implications

Mar 30, 2022 - Specifically, we modeled these variables (with transformations applied in some cases) using a multivariate normal distribution, with standard deviations and covariances set to match historical levels over the last 40 years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4583

The 2024-25 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

Mar 20, 2024 - As a result of this statute, the state regularl y contributes a percentage of pay above what is actuarially required and established by the CalPERS Board. In 2024 ‑25, the state ’s supplemental payment under this section ranges from 0.1  percent of pay for Miscellaneous employees to 1.65  percent of pay for employees in the Peace Officer and Firefighter pension and is expected to total less than $100  million General Fund.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4887