California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk [Publication Details]

Jan 23, 2026 - In this installment of Fiscal Perspectives, the Legislative Analyst describes how the LAO’s revenue estimates represent a hedge against downside stock market risk and why—despite current cash trends—caution matters given the state’s large, ongoing structural deficit.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5104

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk Search In Fiscal Perspectives , the Legislative Analyst periodically offers the Legislature his views on fiscal matters facing California. California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk January 23, 2026 Tweet Gabriel PetekLegislative Analyst History suggests that fiscal risks can build during times when they are easiest to ignore.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - Reaffirming the LAO ’s Independent Mandate The LAO was established in 1941 because the Legislature sought an independent source of information and analysis —one directly accountable to it and serving as a fiscal watchdog on its behalf.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook Executive Summary The Fiscal Outlook gives the Legislature our independent estimates and analysis of the state ’s budget condition for the 2025 ‑26 budget process.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

Strong Tax Collections Belie California's Challenging Fiscal Outlook

Apr 26, 2022 - Yet this is the key takeaway from a recent fiscal analysis of 10,000 possible revenue scenarios conducted by our office. In 95 percent of our simulations, the state encountered a budget problem by 2025-26.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4590

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - American Rescue Plan (ARP) Act Fiscal Relief Funds. The ARP included $350 billion in flexible funding to state and local governments for fiscal recovery in Coronavirus State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2022-23 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - The 2022-23 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook The 2022‑23 Budget Medi ‑Cal Fiscal Outlook This post describes our fiscal outlook for Medi ‑Cal, the major factors that we expect to drive changes in General Fund spending in Medi ‑Cal, and a number of our key underlying assumptions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4474

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight The 2025-26 Budget Undertaking Fiscal Oversight As outlined in our November Outlook , we advise the Legislature to use the 2025-26 budget process to conduct robust fiscal oversight of state programs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983

The 2022-23 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges

Nov 17, 2021 - For this analysis, we assumed that instead of growing throughout the period, General Fund revenues would experience a year ‑over ‑year decline of $20 billion (10 percent) in 2023 ‑24, then grow slowly over the following two years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4473

The 2022-23 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 12, 2022 - Notably, the budget package also includes approval of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Unit 8, which represents CalFire firefighters. As we discuss in our August analysis , this MOU could increase out‑year wildfire response costs significantly.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4616