California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Despite our view that there is a strong possibility of a market downturn, however, our revenue forecast does not assume one will occur. Rather, we ’ve incorporated the elevated risk of a downturn into our estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - This  higher revenue assumption substantially improves the budget condition relative to our forecast and is the main driving difference between our estimates of the deficit. Higher Spending Estimates Erode Some of the Budget Improvement.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - Although the Legislature solved sizeable deficits over the past few years, totaling over $80  billion, those solutions largely only impacted one-time and temporary programs supported by the one-time, post-pandemic revenue surge.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Booming Stock Market Driving Income Growth. The recent run ‑up in the stock market, which appears tied to optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, is a primary driver of the rapid growth in pay to high ‑income workers.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - This year, for example, our outlook reflects our best estimates of the effects of H.R. 1: One Big Beautiful Bill Act on the state budget but does not make assumptions about future federal policy changes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements

Feb 20, 2026 - The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements The 2026-27 Budget How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements Recent stock market performance continues to boost income tax collections. In our Fiscal Outlook , we strongly advised the Legislature to treat near-term strength in tax collections as temporary because we expect these gains to reverse.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5133

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements [Publication Details]

Feb 20, 2026 - The 2026-27 Budget: How to Use One-Time Revenue Improvements [Publication Details] Translate Our Website This Google ™ translation feature provided on the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) website is for informational purposes only.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5133

The 2022-23 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - The 2022-23 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook The 2022‑23 Budget Medi ‑Cal Fiscal Outlook This post describes our fiscal outlook for Medi ‑Cal, the major factors that we expect to drive changes in General Fund spending in Medi ‑Cal, and a number of our key underlying assumptions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4474

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - There was only one brief departure from this paradigm. In March of 2004, on the heels of the dot ‑com bust, voters passed Proposition  58, which created the Budget Stabilization Account (BSA). In the 2006 ‑07 budget, the Legislature deposited $472  million into the BSA and in 2007 ‑08 deposited $1.5  billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028