The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - As shown in Figure  1 , many signs of an overly exuberant stock market are present today: measures of whether stocks are “expensive ” are at historically high levels, investors are borrowing more to buy stocks, and households are more invested in the stock market than they have been in at least 70  years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - One path is falling interest rates and expansion of money available for lending and investment. A key driver of California ’s economic slump over the last two years has been the Federal Reserve ’s efforts to tamp down inflation by raising interest rates and shrinking how much money is available for lending and investment.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2024-25 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

Mar 20, 2024 - Revenues from investment returns vary significantly year to year depending on market performance; however, CalPERS assumes an annual return of 6.8  percent. Employee and Employer Contributions to “Normal Cost. ” The normal cost is the amount actuaries determine must be contributed to the system in a given year to fund the benefit earned by state employees in that year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4887

New Inflation Poses Not So New Budget Risk

Dec 15, 2022 - A decelerating economy —with or without a recession —combined with reduced capital gains from real estate or financial investments diminishes the state ’s revenue outlook. Already, we estimate that in the current budget window —spanning 2021-22 through 2023- 24 —tax revenues will be $41  billion lower than what the 2022-23 Budget Act assumes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4653

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - These firms have invested heavily in building out data centers and on extraordinary pay packages for their key employees. This spending, along with gains to investors, has turbo-charged state income tax receipts.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2023-24 Budget: State Appropriations Limit Estimates

Feb 1, 2023 - Subscribe | California State Legislature | Online Voter Registration | Privacy Policy | Accessibility Legislative Analyst's Office | The California Legislature's Nonpartisan Fiscal and Policy Advisor 925 L Street, Suite 1000 Sacramento, CA 95814 | (916) 445-4656
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4667

The 2022-23 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Sep 27, 2022 - California Competes annually awards $180  million in income tax credits to attract or retain businesses considering a significant new investment here. California Competes is designed so that companies earn credits incrementally over a five-year period.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4626

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - Several major firms have posted historically high earnings. Consistent with this recent trend, under our main forecast, we estimate tax revenues (and transfers) are higher by nearly $28 billion across 2020‑21 and 2021‑22 compared to budget act estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 16, 2022 - Using CalPERS ’ online tool, we adjust these contribution rates based on recent investment returns, our assessment of economic conditions, and expected Proposition  2 debt repayments under our forecast.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4646