The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - This Time Might Be Different, but It Is Not Safe to Bet on It. With so much enthusiasm surrounding AI, it now appears time to take seriously the notion that the stock market has become overheated. History suggests that the stock market is prone to overreact to major technological advances, even if the technology itself turns out to be revolutionary.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2022-23 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 12, 2022 - In recent years, the state has taken steps to expand eligibility for comprehensive Medi ‑Cal coverage to undocumented residents under the age of 26  as well as those over the age of 49. The budget package expands eligibility for comprehensive Medi ‑Cal coverage to otherwise ‑eligible undocumented residents between the ages of 26  and 49 beginning no later than January 1, 2024.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4616

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - These firms have invested heavily in building out data centers and on extraordinary pay packages for their key employees. This spending, along with gains to investors, has turbo-charged state income tax receipts.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2022-23 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2022 - Over the last several years, and in a number of steps, the Legislature has expanded comprehensive Medi ‑Cal coverage to all income ‑eligible undocumented immigrants who are under the age of 26 or over the age of 49.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4492

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2023 - There are three reasons for these differences (some offsetting): (1)  our revenue estimates are somewhat higher than the administration in the out ‑years, particularly in 2026 ‑27; (2)  our higher revenue estimates result in higher spending on schools and community colleges; and (3)  as noted above, our estimate of spending on all other programs is higher than the administration ’s projections over the period, reaching a difference of $10  billion by 2026 ‑27.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4772

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - Second, we briefly summarize the key actions taken to address projected out ‑year deficits, and describe the administration ’s June  2025 estimates of the state ’s multiyear budget condition under the enacted spending plan.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - These choices included about $11  billion in spending ‑related solutions and $15  billion in all other solutions, including $5.5  billion in temporary revenue increases and a $7  billion withdrawal from the state ’s rainy ‑day fund .
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - Chapter  1 lays out a framework for establishing a goal for the state ’s reserve policy, and then tools that can be used to estimate how much in reserves the state needs to save to achieve that goal over time.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2024-25 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2024 - Out-Years Modest Operating Deficits Persist Through the Multiyear. Figure  1 shows our office ’s projections of the state ’s budget condition compared to the administration ’s estimates. As the figure shows, both of our offices project the state will have operating deficits (budget problems) over the multiyear period —ranging from very small deficits in 2025 ‑26 to larger ones in the out-years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4907