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Report

A Long-Term Outlook: Disability Among California’s Seniors

November 28, 2016 - This report presents the results of our projections to inform the Legislature and stakeholders about levels of disability and the potential need for long–term supports and services (LTSS) among California’s seniors over the next several decades. These projections provide a useful starting point in understanding how California’s changing population demographics will impact the LTSS delivery system. The results presented in this report can also be built upon with further analysis focused on utilization and financing of LTSS over the long term.

A companion video and infographic highlight key findings from the report.

Presentation

California's Fiscal Outlook (CASBO Presentation)

November 17, 2016 - Presented to: California Association of School Business Officials

Post

Fiscal Outlook Supplement on Proposition 2

November 16, 2016 - On November 16th our office released its annual Fiscal Outlook. The outlook provides our assessment of California’s budget condition through 2020-21. This post provides more details on the outlook’s estimates of constitutionally required debt payments and reserve deposits under Proposition 2.

Report

The 2017-18 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

November 16, 2016 - Under our current projections, assuming no changes in existing state and federal policies, we estimate the state will end the 2017-18 fiscal year with $11.5 billion in total reserves. This includes $8.7 billion in required reserves, which must be deposited into the rainy day fund, and $2.8 billion in discretionary reserves, which the Legislature can appropriate for any purpose. These reserve levels reflect the continued progress California has made in improving its budget situation. Our estimates include the effects of statewide ballot measures that were approved on November 8. The condition of the state budget depends on many volatile and unpredictable factors. This uncertainty is present in the near term and becomes greater in each subsequent year. We discuss two illustrative economic scenarios for the fiscal years after 2017-18. Under a mild recession scenario, the state would have enough reserves to cover its operating deficits through 2020-21. This means, under our assumptions, the state could weather a mild recession without cutting spending or raising taxes. However, this conclusion assumes that the state does not make any changes to its current policies and programs in any year during the outlook. This outlook also assumes no changes in federal policy, even though the recent election results suggest some such changes are now likely. State or federal policy changes could have a significant impact on the state's bottom line.

Report

Los Angeles' Bid for the 2024 Olympics and Paralympics

November 10, 2016 - Los Angeles, Budapest, and Paris are competing to host the 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games. The International Olympic Committee will choose the winning city in September 2017. Both the state and the City of Los Angeles are already planning in case the Games return to Southern California. Earlier this year, the Legislature passed a bill to provide state support for Los Angeles' bid. Under that bill, the Governor is allowed to negotiate a contract with Games organizers for the state to provide no more than $250 million of back-up financial support if the 2024 Los Angeles Olympics end with a financial shortfall. The current Los Angeles bid greatly reduces the risk of shortfalls by relying on existing facilities, thereby minimizing the risk of large cost overruns that have plagued many prior Olympic hosts. We advise the Legislature, through its oversight process, to help Games organizers keep costs and financial risks as low as possible. This report notes issues that the state may need to consider as planning for the Games proceeds.

Also see our March 23, 2017 report Update on Los Angeles’ Bid for the 2024 Olympics.

Handout

IHSS Timesheet Processing

November 1, 2016 - Presented to Senate Human Services Committee

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New Federal Toxics Law Could Have Future Implications for State

October 5, 2016 - On June 22, 2016, the President signed the Frank R. Lautenberg Chemical Safety for the 21st Century Act. The new law implements significant reforms to the federal Toxic Substances Control Act. Under the new law, U.S. EPA will have greater authority to evaluate and regulate existing chemicals, as well as new chemicals proposed to be brought to the market. In addition to providing EPA with more authority to enforce restrictions on chemicals, the new law places greater limits on the authority of states to enforce their own laws and regulations restricting the use of chemicals. In the long-run, it is quite possible that the new federal law—and specifically the preemption provisions—could significantly affect California’s chemical safety programs and the implementation of current and future state restrictions.

Report

The 2016-17 Budget: California Spending Plan

October 5, 2016 - Each year, the Legislative Analyst’s Office publishes the California Spending Plan to summarize the annual state budget. This publication discusses the 2016–17 Budget Act and other major budget actions approved during 2016. Unless indicated otherwise, figures and dollar amounts generally refer to budget actions passed as part of the June 2016 budget package, as signed into law on June 27 and July 1, 2016. In some cases, as noted, we discuss later budget actions approved during August 2016 by the Legislature. During August, for example, the Legislature and the Governor agreed to spend certain cap–and–trade funds. The budget totals include $400 million (General Fund) for affordable housing even though the Legislature and Governor have not reached agreement on this spending.

This year's California Spending Plan includes an interactive graphic to help the reader visualize how the state budget spent $167 billion in total state revenues.

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Revisiting the Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Insolvency

September 30, 2016 - Due to a variety of factors, the state's Unemployment Insurance (UI) trust fund exhausted its reserves in 2009, requiring the state to take on loans to continue the payment of benefits to unemployed workers. In this series of four online posts, we (1) examine the current condition of the UI trust fund and how it may change in the near future, (2) provide context on who pays UI taxes and how much they pay, (3) assess the extent to which the UI trust fund is prepared for the next economic downturn, and (4) look at potential steps the Legislature could take should it wish to increase reserves in the trust fund as a means to address the fiscal impacts of the next economic downturn.

Update 6/13/17:
Post 1 updated to reflect estimates in the 2017-18 May Revision.

Update 1/20/17:
Post 1 updated to reflect estimates in the 2017-18 Governor's Budget.

Report

California’s First Film Tax Credit Program

September 29, 2016 -

In this report, as required by law, we evaluate the economic effects and the administration of the first film tax credit program passed in 2009. We find that about one–third of the film and television projects receiving incentives under this program would probably have been made in California anyway. We suspect that this level of “windfall benefits” to some credit recipients may be low compared to other tax credits, which would suggest that the first film tax credit program targeted the types of production vulnerable to being filmed outside the state relatively well.

Also see these four short videos that highlight findings from this report.

Report

A Review of the California National Guard Education Assistance Award Program

September 27, 2016 - Chapter 12 of 2009 (AB4X 12, Evans) created the California National Guard Education Assistance Award program as part of the 2009-10 budget package. The program provides financial aid to members of the California National Guard and the State Military Reserve to pay for postsecondary education. The legislation sunsets the program July 1, 2019 and requires our office to review the program prior to this sunset. Because the Military Department does not track certain data, we were unable to evaluate whether the program is helping the department retain members with critical skills or whether it is increasing the number of members enrolled in postsecondary education or increasing the units they take. Given the available data does not show that the program is effective at retaining members or increasing their skills and education, we recommend allowing it to sunset. Because the program’s ineffectiveness appears to stem in part from a lack of a clear focus, we recommend the Legislature consider as a next step developing a more thorough understanding of the Military Department’s most pressing personnel problem and identifying a new solution tailored to that specific problem. Though the evidence does not support extension of the existing version of the program, we also suggest several modifications for the Legislature to consider if it decides to continue the program.

Report

California Community Colleges: Second Progress Report on the Student Success Act of 2012

September 22, 2016 - In this report, we provide background on the Student Success and Support Program, student equity, and other student success programs of the California Community Colleges (CCC). As background, we consider the effects of recent actions taken by the CCC Board of Governors, including setting minimum academic standards for fee waivers and establishing new policies for registration. We next discuss implementation of student success and equity programs. We conclude with an assessment of implementation to date and offer recommendations for legislative consideration.

Report

Improving Education for Deaf and Hard of Hearing Students in California

September 21, 2016 - California opened its first school for the deaf in 1860, long before it established most other forms of special education. Today, we estimate California spends more than $400 million a year to educate approximately 14,000 students who are deaf or hard of hearing (DHH). On a per–student basis, California spends substantially more to educate DHH students than other groups of children, including students with various other disabilities. Despite California’s long experience with and relatively large expenditures on DHH students, these students continue to lag far behind their hearing peers on statewide assessments of reading and math. In this report, we undertake a comprehensive review of DHH education in California. We begin by describing the state’s current approach to DHH education, then identify several major shortcomings with this approach, and conclude by making recommendations to address the shortcomings.

Report

Common Claims About Proposition 13

September 19, 2016 -

Proposition 13 was a landmark decision by California’s voters in June 1978 to limit property taxes. Today, there are many questions about the impacts of these changes. This report examines some of these questions and which of them can be answered by the data available.

Also see the companion videos for this report.

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Road Charge Pilot Program Update

September 15, 2016 - In 2014, legislation was enacted that requires the California State Transportation Agency to conduct a road charge pilot program to study the feasibility of charging individuals for each mile they drive as an alternative to fuel taxes. The road charge pilot program officially began in July 2016 and will continue through March 2017. In this post, we provide an update on the pilot program.