Updated "Big Three" Revenue Outlook (May 2026) [EconTax Blog]

May 7, 2026 - Income tax collections continue to be boosted by a roaring stock market —which is up 75 percent in the last three years alone. December and January income tax payments to the Franchise Tax Board (which reflect non-wage income like investment and business earnings) were up more than 50 percent from a year ago.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/856

Updated "Big Three" Revenue Outlook (May 2026) [EconTax Blog]

May 7, 2026 - Income tax collections continue to be boosted by a roaring stock market —which is up 75 percent in the last three years alone. December and January income tax payments to the Franchise Tax Board (which reflect non-wage income like investment and business earnings) were up more than 50 percent from a year ago.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/856

The Rise of Remote Work: Effects on California's Labor Market

May 6, 2026 - These factors have compounded over time, generating the wages, tax revenue, and economic activity that have helped make the state  prosperous. The rise of remote work has weakened this economic engine.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5182

How Will the Changing Landscape Affect California’s Health Care System? [Publication Details]

May 4, 2026 - In this report, we analyze how the changing fiscal and policy landscape will affect California’s health care system, including health coverage, hospitals, clinics, private health insurance, and county programs. We also provide key issues to consider regarding these effects.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5180

How Will the Changing Landscape Affect California’s Health Care System?

May 4, 2026 - For example, as we noted in our 2025 report, the state likely will n eed to reduce two key provider taxes —a tax on health plans and a fee on private hospitals —to comply with the new limit under H.R. 1.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5180

The 2026-27 Budget: Update on Local Control Funding Formula Costs

May 1, 2026 - Specifically, school districts and COEs receive an annual allotment equal to the difference between their add-on amounts and 60  percent of the eligible transportation expenditures they reported in the previous year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5178

Understanding $100 Billion in Spending Growth: Causes and Fiscal Implications

Apr 28, 2026 - IT expenditures span both employee compensation —including salaries and benefits of state IT workers —and operating expenses and equipment, which include, for example, software licenses, hardware, and cloud services.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5176

New IRS Data Show Pandemic Outmigration Eased in 2023 [EconTax Blog]

Apr 17, 2026 - Forgone tax collections due to net outmigration peaked at 1.6 percent of 2022-23 PIT revenue, three times higher (about 1 percentage point) than pre-pandemic levels. Our assessment of the 2023 IRS migration data suggests that net domestic outmigration reduced income tax revenue growth in 2023-24 by nearly $1 billion (0.7 percent).  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/854

New IRS Data Show Pandemic Outmigration Eased in 2023 [EconTax Blog]

Apr 17, 2026 - Forgone tax collections due to net outmigration peaked at 1.6 percent of 2022-23 PIT revenue, three times higher (about 1 percentage point) than pre-pandemic levels. Our assessment of the 2023 IRS migration data suggests that net domestic outmigration reduced income tax revenue growth in 2023-24 by nearly $1 billion (0.7 percent).  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/854

The 2026-27 Budget: Bureau for Private Postsecondary Education

Mar 25, 2026 - Even with out repayment, that fund would have more than enough to cover its expenditures, with an estimated ending balance of $95  million (22 months of expenditures) in 2025-26. Proposal Would Not Address BPPE ’s Underlying Structural Deficit.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5169