California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - While the Governor ’s budget describes the financial markets as a leading risk to the budget and assumes that stock market appreciation slows, it does not explicitly factor the risk of a market downturn into its revenue estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/852

How Have Past Stock Market Downturns Affected Income Tax Revenue? [EconTax Blog]

Mar 9, 2026 - By most measures, the global financial crisis was more severe than the dot-com crash. The state 's unemployment rate, for example, peaked at 7 percent following the dot-com crash but reached nearly double that during the financial crisis and remained elevated for much longer.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/852

Oversight of certain public benefit artificial intelligence (AI) companies. [Ballot]

Jan 20, 2026 - The measure would have the following major fiscal effects: Increased state costs that would likely be in the tens of millions of dollars annually to establish and operate a new regulatory commission overseeing certain public benefit AI com panies.
https://lao.ca.gov/BallotAnalysis/Initiative/2025-033

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

California’s Child Welfare System: Addressing Disproportionalities and Disparities

Apr 24, 2024 - Disproportionate Exposure to Risk Factors Some Groups More Likely to Be in Low ‑Income Families and Experience Broader Risk Factors.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4897

The 2026-27 Budget: In-Home Supportive Services

Mar 18, 2026 - Taken Together, These Cost Drivers Account for Much of the Growth Overall, IHSS Cost Growth Can Be Attributed to Three Main Factors. IHSS costs can be largely attributed to three primary factors: caseload, cost per hour, and hours per case.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5166

Home Prices Update: September 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Oct 20, 2021 - Previous recessions have had disparate effects on home prices: they were largely unaffected by the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2001, while in the late 2000s the collapse of the housing bubble was the single biggest factor that led to the financial crisis.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/706

The 2026-27 Budget: California Competes Extension

Mar 18, 2026 - Program staff must weigh these possibly competing factors, and the high recapture rate cou ld indicate a relative favoring of high-risk, high-rewards projects. In years where the program is fully subscribed, there is an opportunity cost associated with an agreement that is not fulfilled.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5162

Home Price Update: October 2021 [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2021 - Previous recessions have had disparate effects on home prices: they were largely unaffected by the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2001, while in the late 2000s the collapse of the housing bubble was the single biggest factor that led to the financial crisis.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/714