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November 18, 2020 - The annual Fiscal Outlook publication gives our office’s independent assessment of the California state budget condition for the upcoming fiscal year and over the longer term. We find the budget situation has improved considerably relative to the June budget act with an estimated $26 billion windfall in 2021-22. However, the state also faces an operating deficit beginning in 2021-22 and throughout the outlook period, growing to $17 billion by 2024-25. Our analysis also finds it is quite unlikely for revenues to grow fast enough for the budget to break even and erase the operating deficit.
In addition to The 2021-22 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook report and the accompanying The 2021-22 Budget: The Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges report, several related posts on health and human services, economics and taxes, and other issues will be published in the coming days.
November 10, 2020 - Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 6 on Budget Process Oversight and Program Evaluation and Assembly Committee on Governmental Organization
October 5, 2020 - Each year, our office publishes California Spending Plan, a series of publications that summarize the annual state budget. The final version of Overview of the California Spending Plan is presented here along with short online posts that focus on major areas and features of the 2020-21 budget package. As more of these posts become available, we will add them below.
October 5, 2020 - Each year, our office publishes the California Spending Plan to summarize the annual state budget. This publication provides an overview of the 2020‑21 Budget Act, provides a short history of the notable events in the budget process, and then highlights major features of the budget approved by the Legislature and signed by the Governor. All figures in this publication reflect the administration’s estimates of actions taken through June 30, 2020, but we have updated the narrative to reflect actions taken later in the legislative session. In addition to this publication, we have released a series of issue‑specific posts providing more detail on various programmatic aspects of the budget.
September 29, 2020 - Presented to: Committee on Accountability and Administrative Review Hon. Cottie Petrie-Norris, Chair and Assembly Committee on Budget Hon. Phil Ting, Chair
August 31, 2020 - Provides an update on California’s cash management situation, including recent developments in spring 2020 and the outlook for 2020-21.
July 29, 2020 - The Supplemental Report of the 2020-21 Budget Act contains statements of legislative intent that were adopted during deliberations on the 2020-21 budget package.
June 12, 2020 - Presented to the Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Committee
June 4, 2020 - Presented to the Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 6 on Budget Process Oversight and Program Evaluation
May 28, 2020 - Presented to the Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Committee
May 26, 2020 - Presented to the Assembly Committee of the Whole
May 22, 2020 - Assembly Budget Subcommittee No. 6 on Budget Process Oversight and Program Evaluation Hon. Philip Y. Ting, Chair
May 18, 2020 - Presented to the Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Committee
May 17, 2020 - On May 14, 2020, Governor Newsom presented a revised state budget proposal to the Legislature. In this post, we provide an overview of the overall budget condition under the May Revision estimates and proposals; the major actions the Governor took to close an estimated $54 billion budget gap; and give our initial comments on this budget package.
May 8, 2020 - This report provides an update on the budget’s condition in light of the public health emergency and economic downturn associated with the coronavirus disease 2019. Our outlook presents two potential scenarios—a somewhat optimistic “U-shaped” recession and a somewhat pessimistic “L-shaped” recession—and assumes a baseline level of expenditures. Under these two scenarios, the state would have to address an $18 billion or $31 billion budget problem. The state’s newly emergent fiscal challenges are likely to extend well beyond the end of the public health crisis. Under both of our economic scenarios, budget deficits persist until at least 2023-24 with multiyear deficits summing to $64 billion in the U-shaped recession and $126 billion in the L-shaped recession.