May 23, 2024 - This post presents our office’s forecast of the condition of the state General Fund budget through 2027-28 under our revenue estimates and assuming the Governor’s May Revision policies were adopted.
November 16, 2022 - Our annual Fiscal Outlook publication gives our office’s independent assessment of the California state budget condition for the upcoming fiscal year and over the longer term. In this report, we anticipate the state will have a $24 billion budget problem to solve in the upcoming fiscal year and operating deficits declining from $17 billion to $8 billion over the multiyear period. The goal of this report is to help the Legislature begin crafting the 2023‑24 budget. Our analysis relies on specific assumptions about the future of the state economy, its revenues, and its expenditures. Consequently, our estimates are not definitive, but rather reflect our best guidance to the Legislature based on our professional assessments as of November 2022.
Update (11/22/22): The original version of this report identified a $25 billion—instead of a $24 billion—budget problem, which reflected an error in the way we accounted for student housing grant program funding.
January 13, 2023 - On January 10, 2023, Governor Newsom presented his proposed state budget to the Legislature. In this report, we provide a brief summary of the proposed budget based on our initial review. In the coming weeks, we will analyze the plan in more detail and release several additional budget analyses.
May 15, 2023 - On May 12, 2023, Governor Newsom presented a revised state budget proposal to the Legislature. (This annual proposed revised budget is called the “May Revision.”) In this brief, we provide a summary of and comments on the Governor’s revised budget, focusing on the overall condition and structure of the state General Fund—the budget’s main operating account.
February 15, 2023 - This brief provides our current assessment of the scale of the coming budget problems under the Governor’s budget proposals. We also provide our guidance to the Legislature about how to address these shortfalls given current economic conditions.
December 7, 2023 - Each year, our office publishes the Fiscal Outlook in anticipation of the upcoming budget season. The goal of this report is to give the Legislature our independent estimates and analysis of the state’s budget condition as lawmakers begin planning the 2024-25 budget.
May 17, 2024 - On May 14, 2024, Governor Newsom presented a revised state budget proposal to the Legislature. This annual proposed revised budget is referred to as the May Revision. In this brief, we provide a summary of and comments on the Governor’s revised budget, focusing on the overall condition and structure of the state General Fund—the budget’s main operating account.
September 6, 2024 - Each year, our office publishes the California Spending Plan to summarize the annual state budget. This publication provides an overview of the 2024‑25 Budget Act, gives a brief description of how the budget process unfolded, and then highlights major features of the budget approved by the Legislature and signed by the Governor. All figures in this publication reflect actions taken through early July 2024, but we have updated the narrative to reflect actions taken later in the legislative session.
January 13, 2024 - On January 10, 2024, Governor Newsom presented his proposed state budget to the California Legislature. In this report, we provide a brief summary of the Governor’s budget based on our initial review as of January 12. In the coming weeks, we will analyze the plan in more detail and release many additional issue-specific budget analyses.
May 24, 2024 - Presented to: California Society of Municipal Analysts
October 16, 2023 - This publication provides a preliminary overview of the 2023-24 Budget Act, gives a brief description of how the budget process unfolded, and then highlights major features of the budget.
November 20, 2024 -
Every year, our office publishes the Fiscal Outlook in anticipation of the upcoming budget season. This report gives the Legislature our independent estimates and analysis of the state’s budget condition with the goal of helping lawmakers prepare for the 2025-26 budget process.
See our other Fiscal Outlook publications here.
May 23, 2021 - This report presents our office’s independent assessment of the condition of the state General Fund budget through 2024-25 assuming the economy continues to grow. While the state faces a historic surplus, a spending level beyond what is proposed by the Governor would require the Legislature to identify proposals to reject. Moreover, our analysis finds that the level of ongoing spending proposed by the Governor is only supportable with a revenue forecast that is more optimistic than the administration’s current estimates.
May 17, 2018 - This post presents our office’s outlook for the condition of the state’s General Fund through 2021-22 based on the Governor’s 2018-19 May Revision proposals.
February 14, 2024 - This report describes the Governor’s proposed budget solutions within climate, resources, and environmental programs, and provides the Legislature with suggestions for how it might modify the spending plan to better reflect its priorities and prepare to address a potentially larger budget problem.