COVID-19 and the Labor Market: Who Are California's Frontline and Remote Workers? [EconTax Blog]

Dec 8, 2020 - At the same time, very few workers with lower education levels work in jobs that likely can be done remotely: fewer than 10 percent of workers with no high school diploma work in jobs that can be done remotely.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/article/Detail/593

The 2021-22 Budget: CalWORKs Fiscal Outlook

Dec 8, 2020 - We Project Further Increases in Out ‑Years. We project caseload to peak in 2022 ‑23, consistent with historic evidence suggesting caseload peaks roughly two years after peak unemployment. We further project caseload to remain above pre ‑pandemic levels through at least 2024 ‑25.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4306

November 2020 Cap-and-Trade Auction Update [EconTax Blog]

Dec 4, 2020 - The remaining $164 million in revenues will be available for new discretionary program spending, either in the current year or in future years. (The enacted 2020-21 budget package does not include a detailed discretionary expenditure plan.)
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/588

With New Deficits Looming, California Will Weigh its Options for Allocating a Large Revenue Windfall

Dec 1, 2020 - Looking ahead, however, we also identify the emergence of a new ongoing deficit beginning in the budget year (2021‑22). This fiscal gap persists and widens through the remainder of our outlook period (2024‑25).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4305

Cannabis Tax Revenue Update [EconTax Blog]

Nov 30, 2020 - The administration ’s current estimates include large upward revisions for fiscal year 2019-20 —especially the fourth quarter of the fiscal year (April through June). In particular, the administration revised its estimate from $477 million to $522 million.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/583

Income Tax Withholding Tracker: November 16 - November 20 [EconTax Blog]

Nov 20, 2020 - The final graph shows the year over year changes in cumulative withholding for California in 2020, the United States in 2020 (from the federal income tax), and California in 2009 at the trough of the Great Recession.
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/584

The 2021-22 Budget: State Correctional Population Outlook [Publication Details]

Nov 19, 2020 - We also estimate that these population declines will substantially slow the expected growth in CDCR’s overall projected costs through 2024-25—partially through the closure of five prisons. This publication is part of our The 2021-22 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook series.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4304

The 2021-22 Budget: State Correctional Population Outlook

Nov 19, 2020 - In total, we project that employee compensation costs will increase by roughly $2. 5  b illion between 2020 ‑21 and 2024 ‑25. Accordingly, the reduction in population ‑related costs will result in CDCR ’s budget growing by only around $ 1  b illion by 2024 ‑25.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4304?utm_source=laowww&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=4304

2021-22 Fiscal Outlook Economic Assumptions [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2020 - Overall, we assume the economy will continue to recover gradually over the next several years, remaining below pre-pandemic levels for an extended period. Statewide employment is not expected to fully recover until 2025 or later.  
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/582

2021-22 Fiscal Outlook Revenue Estimates [EconTax Blog]

Nov 18, 2020 - We project annual SUT growth of 2.8 percent in 2022-23, accelerating to 4 percent in 2023-24 and 2024-25. SUT Forecast Higher Than Budget Act. In total, our SUT projections from 2019-20 through 2021-22 are $7.2 billion above the amount assumed in the Budget Act .
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/581