The 2021-22 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook [Publication Details]

Nov 18, 2020 - In addition to The 2021-22 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook report and the accompanying The 2021-22 Budget: The Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges report, several related posts on health and human services, economics and taxes, and other issues will be published in the coming days.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4297

Volatility of the Personal Income Tax Base [Publication Details]

Feb 8, 2017 - On the other hand, California's personal income tax (PIT) base was much more volatile. This is because (1) some of the more stable pieces of personal income are not taxed under California's PIT and (2) the PIT tax base includes capital gains, which are extremely volatile and are not counted as part of personal income in federal statistics.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/3548

The 2022-23 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges

Nov 17, 2021 - The Legislature can respond to excess revenues by (1)  lowering tax revenues, (2) splitting the excess between taxpayer rebates and one ‑time payments to school and community college districts, or (3) appropriating more money for purposes excluded from the limit.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4473

The 2022-23 Budget: Green School Bus Grants

Feb 10, 2022 - Appropriations subject to the limit consist of total state tax revenues after subtracting excluded spending, including capital outlay, certain spending on emergencies, and certain subventions to local governments.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4525

The 2018-19 Budget: Proposition 98 Outlook

Nov 15, 2017 - The personal income tax accounts for most of the revenue growth, increasing nearly $ 8  b illion (9. 5  p ercent) in 2017 ‑18 and nearly $ 5  b illion (5. 4  p ercent) in 2018 ‑19. Revenue from the sales and use tax and the corporate tax also increases, albeit more slowly.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3716

The 2017-18 Budget: Analysis of Special Education “Disconnect”

Mar 1, 2017 - (Roughly ten SELPAs will be most opposed to the first option, as they have sufficient property tax revenue to continue covering the higher statutory funding levels. These SELPAs w ould see some of their property tax revenue go to cities, counties, and/or trial courts, consistent with existing related statutory provisions.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3598

A Historical Review of Proposition 98

Jan 18, 2017 - Gas Tax Swap. State eliminated its sales tax on gasoline, which had counted toward the guarantee, and replaced it with an excise tax that otherwise would not count toward the guarantee. The state initially held schools and community colleges harmless by assuming the gas sales tax revenue still existed for the purposes of Proposition  98 calculations.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3526

The 2017-18 Budget: County Offices of Education and The Minimum State Aid Provision

Feb 10, 2017 - Under the LCFF for COEs (similar to school districts), local property tax is counted first for meeting each COE ’s overall LCFF allotment, with the state making up any gap. In a county where local property tax revenue is sufficient to fund all of its LCFF allotment, the state still must provide its minimum state aid allotment.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3554

The 2017-18 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 13, 2017 - Changes in federal tax policy could have some near –term benefit or costs to state tax revenues and taxpayers (and perhaps require new state tax legislation to conform to those federal policies). Other possible federal policy changes could affect the economy, reduce federal funding, or substantially increase state costs in future years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3669

The 2018-19 Budget: Analysis of the May Revision Education Budget Proposals

May 14, 2018 - (Our estimates of the other major sources of General Fund revenue —the sales tax and the corporation tax —together are somewhat lower than the administration ’s estimates, offsetting a small portion of our higher personal income tax estimates.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3834