Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - However, if the state faced a moderate recession with this level of reserves, it would also have to take roughly $ 25  b illion in actions to address a budget problem, including spending cuts, revenue increases, and cost shifts.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

Long-term Capacity for Debt Payments Under Proposition 2

Dec 21, 2017 - Provisions of Proposition  2 Key Provisions of Proposition  2. Proposition  2 requires the state to make: (1) minimum annual payments toward certain eligible debts (until 2029 ‑30) and (2) deposits into the state ’s rainy day fund.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3727

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - Figure 2 LAO May 2018 Economic Growth Scenario a Percent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated 2017
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2026-27 Budget: California Competes Extension

Mar 18, 2026 - All three of these changes could have contributed to the trend shown in Figure  2 if (1)  The 25  percent rule was favoring smaller businesses above better-qualified applicants from larger firms, (2)  larger businesses provide better evidence on how the credit affects their decision-making, and (3)  larger firms are more likely to have, or participate in, job training programs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5162

The 2026-27 Budget: CDTFA’s Cannabis and Tobacco Programs

Feb 23, 2026 - From 2021 ‑22 to 2024 ‑25, tobacco tax revenues dropped 14  percent per year —much faster than the 2  percent historical average. Potential explanations for this decline include: A drop in actual tobacco consumption —the flavor ban ’s intended outcome.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5132

The 2025-26 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Oct 16, 2025 - In both cases, (1)  the assumed level of savings is lower than what was assumed as part of the 2024-25 budget package and (2) savings that were assumed unallocated in 2024-25 are assumed to be distributed to departments in 2025-26 Control Section 4.05: Reduced Operational Costs Distributed to Departments.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5081

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - After a period of relative calm in the mid ‑ and late ‑1990s, California faced another series of years with acute budget problems following the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession. Although the dot ‑com bust was relatively mild in economic terms, it hit the California budget —which is particularly reliant on the Bay Area ’s technology sector —especially hard.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

The 2026-27 Budget: State Mandate—Disclosure Requirements and Deferral of Property Taxation

Feb 19, 2026 - The California Constitution requires the state to reimburse local governments when (1)  new state laws or regulations mandate that they implement a new program or higher level of service and (2)  the local government does not have offsetting revenues available to fully cover the associated costs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5130

Sales Tax Exemption for Bunker Fuel

Nov 19, 2025 - This approach yields an estimate of 8.6  million barrels for fiscal year 2024-25. Subscribe | California State Legislature | Online Voter Registration | Privacy Policy | Accessibility Legislative Analyst's Office | The California Legislature's Nonpartisan Fiscal and Policy Advisor 925 L Street, Suite 1000 Sacramento, CA 95814 | (916) 445-4656
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5094

Fixing Unemployment Insurance

Dec 2, 2024 - At the time, average benefits replaced roughly 20  percent to 25  percent of workers ’ average  wages. In response, the state increased UI benefits in 2001. This legislation: (1)  increased the maximum weekly benefit from $230 per week to $450 per week and (2)  increased the wage replacement rate from 39  percent to 50  percent.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4943