California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

A History of California’s Budget Reserves

Mar 24, 2017 - The blue bars display enacted reserves, or the amount of combined SFEU and BSA reserves assumed in the annual state budget for the upcoming fiscal year. The dashed line shows actual reserves, or the revised level of reserves estimated by the Department of Finance for the current year, after the state has more information about realized revenues and expenditures.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3630

The 2024-25 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2024 - The light green line shows the amount of revenue the state would need to “break even ” —that is, the level of revenue the state would need to be able to afford the level of spending proposed in the May Revision.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4907

The 2016-17 Budget: California Spending Plan

Oct 5, 2016 - Green Infrastructure Projects ($80   Million). The budget provides $80   million to the Natural Resources Agency for green infrastructure projects that reduce GHG emissions and provide multiple benefits.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3487/8

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2023 - As seen in the figure, while the revenues required to balance the budget (in green) are optimistic, but plausible, in the budget window, they are improbable in the out ‑years. For example, to eliminate the operating deficit in 2024 ‑25, revenues would need to be roughly $30  billion higher than our forecast (in dark purple).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4772

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - Reserves help smooth the difference —funds are saved when revenues are surging (the green regions in the figure below) and then spent when revenues decline below that long ‑term trajectory (the red regions).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

An Update on California’s Cash Management Situation

Aug 31, 2020 - The blue line in Figure 3 shows the state ’s General Fund cash position, as forecasted by DOF, through the fiscal year. As the figure shows, similar to a typical fiscal year, the state will experience cash deficits early in the fiscal year and cash surpluses later in the year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4266

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - After a period of relative calm in the mid ‑ and late ‑1990s, California faced another series of years with acute budget problems following the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession. Although the dot ‑com bust was relatively mild in economic terms, it hit the California budget —which is particularly reliant on the Bay Area ’s technology sector —especially hard.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2022-23 Budget: State Appropriations Limit Implications

Mar 30, 2022 - If the Governor ’s budget proposals that do not meet a SAL requirement are rejected (and those funds are saved instead [blue bars]), the state can most likely delay those deficits until 2025 ‑26. (We list the Governor ’s budget discretionary spending proposals that do not help the state meet its SAL requirements in our post The 2022‑23 Budget: Initial Comments on the State Appropriations Limit Proposal .
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4583