California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - In his 2018 ‑ 19 b udget plan, the Governor proposes ending the year with $15. 7  b illion in total reserves (see Figure  4 ). This would consist of two amounts: $13. 5  b illion in the BSA and $2. 3  b illion in the SFEU.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - Figure 2 LAO May 2018 Economic Growth Scenario a Percent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated 2017
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - However, our Fiscal Outlook revenue forecast, shown in Figure  2 , reflects a smaller, temporary upgrade which reverses beginning in 2026 ‑ 27 —resulting in 2026 ‑27 revenues being in line with budget act estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

Long-term Capacity for Debt Payments Under Proposition 2

Dec 21, 2017 - This section describes these agreements and the commitments now being funded by Proposition  2 debt payments. (A more detailed list of Proposition  2 eligible debts and recent uses of funding is available on page 4 of this budget brief and page 2 of the administration’s multiyear projections .)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3727

The 2024-25 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

Mar 20, 2024 - The state ’s repayments on this borrowing plan, although not technically pension payments, are also considered eligible for Proposition  2 requirements. (For more information about this debt, see: The 2017‑18 Budget: The Governor’s CalPERS Borrowing Proposal and The 2018‑19 Budget: Repaying the CalPERS Borrowing Plan .)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4887

The 2019-20 Budget: California Spending Plan—Debt Liabilities

Oct 17, 2019 - (The payment made in 2018 ‑19 is part of the 2019 ‑20 budget package, but was attributed to 2018 ‑19 for budgetary purposes.) Chapter  33 specifies that these supplemental payments be apportioned based on a pension plan ’s share of the state ’s General Fund contribution to CalPERS.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4106

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - The General Fund ’s share of the loan will be repaid from the state ’s annual Proposition  2 (201 4) d ebt payment requirements. (These requirements vary from year to year according to a formula, but are generally $ 1  b illion or more depending on expected state revenue performance.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

The 2019-20 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - As a result of the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession in 2001, state revenues declined precipitously. The very next year, looking to budget year 2002 ‑03, our Fiscal Outlook found the state ’s surplus had disappeared, and instead, the budget faced a deficit of $12. 4  b illion for the upcoming year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3896