Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2026-27 Budget: California Competes Extension

Mar 18, 2026 - It should be noted that the empirical evidence for the program ’s effectiveness is based on awards made in the first few years of the program (grey shaded area in Figure  2). Therefore, it is plausible that employment effects could be different in more recent rounds of the program.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5162

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2026-27 Budget: CDTFA’s Cannabis and Tobacco Programs

Feb 23, 2026 - In practice, allocating tax and fee program costs based on indirect benefits can create several problems: The spillover effects of each program on all other programs can be very difficult to quantify credibly.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5132

Fixing Unemployment Insurance

Dec 2, 2024 - During the phase ‑in period, the state also entered the dot ‑com recession. These two cost pressures absorbed the remaining flexibility in the state ’s UI tax system. As  shown in Figure  4 , the state began this period in Schedule C but quickly moved to Schedule F+, the highest tax schedule, where it has remained since.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4943

Updating the California Necessities Index

Aug 14, 2025 - These indices are based on changes in prices for consumers in the state ’s four largest metropolitan areas, with the California CPI ‑W tracking prices of goods and services bought by wage earners in those areas.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5065

The 2025-26 Budget: Update on Implementation of New Firearm and Ammunition Tax

Feb 19, 2025 - This is because they are based on one quarter of preliminary data for 2024-25. These data, along with certain assumptions, are then used to estimate revenues in 2024-25 and 2025-26. Revised data for that quarter and new data for additional quarters will be available in the coming months, which will better refine the estimate.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4970

The 2017-18 Budget: Governor's Gann Limit Proposal

Mar 2, 2017 - As revenues surged during the dot ‑com boom of the late 1990s, however, the state approached the limit. The state had excess revenues in 1999 ‑00, but because appropriations were under the limit in 2000 ‑01, additional Proposition  98 spending and taxpayer rebates were not required.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3596

The 2025-26 Budget: Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development

Mar 18, 2025 - Based on these ratings, REDF and CalOSBA selected 61 grantees to receive funds and determined that the 100 rejected ESE applicants were less qualified based on the factors noted above. Little Information Shared on Outcomes From First Grant Round.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5018

Overview of Diversity Efforts in the Film Tax Credit Program

May 1, 2025 - Based on the figures presented above, the Black population is somewhat overrepresented in California ’s motion picture industry (6.6  percent) compared to their share of the total population (5.5  percent).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5036