Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - Under the first statute, the trigger would occur if the Director of Finance projects the SFEU to exceed about 4  p ercent of General Fund revenues (currently, about $5. 4  b illion) in the prior and current year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2025-26 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Oct 16, 2025 - The 2025-26 budget package assumes ongoing savings of $489.8  million ($182.3  million General Fund) (see Attachment 3 of the May 14, 2025 DOF letter) resulting from the permanent elimination of 6,002 vacant positions beginning in 2025-26 (see Attachment 4 of the May 14, 2025 DOF letter).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5081

The 2017-18 Budget: Governor's Gann Limit Proposal

Mar 2, 2017 - First, the Governor proposes to no longer count under the state limit roughly $14  billion of state funding that cannot be absorbed under school district limits. (This is our estimate; the administration declined to provide us its estimate.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3596

The 2026-27 Budget: CDTFA’s Cannabis and Tobacco Programs

Feb 23, 2026 - From 2021 ‑22 to 2024 ‑25, tobacco tax revenues dropped 14  percent per year —much faster than the 2  percent historical average. Potential explanations for this decline include: A drop in actual tobacco consumption —the flavor ban ’s intended outcome.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5132

The 2026-27 Budget: State Mandate—Disclosure Requirements and Deferral of Property Taxation

Feb 19, 2026 - In particular, state law directs our office to report on the annual state costs for new mandates and make recommendations to the Legislature as to whether the new mandates should be (1)  repealed (permanently eliminating it or making it optional), (2)  suspended (rendering it inoperative for one year), (3)  modified, or (4)  funded.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5130

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - After a period of relative calm in the mid ‑ and late ‑1990s, California faced another series of years with acute budget problems following the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession. Although the dot ‑com bust was relatively mild in economic terms, it hit the California budget —which is particularly reliant on the Bay Area ’s technology sector —especially hard.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

The 2026-27 Budget: California Competes Extension

Mar 18, 2026 - Figure  4 shows how credit allocation across sectors has changed since changes were made to the program in 2018. In particular, the share of awards going to advanced manufacturing firms has greatly increased while the share going to professional services (for example, accounting, legal, and local business services) has significantly decreased.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5162

Fixing Unemployment Insurance

Dec 2, 2024 - During the phase ‑in period, the state also entered the dot ‑com recession. These two cost pressures absorbed the remaining flexibility in the state ’s UI tax system. As  shown in Figure  4 , the state began this period in Schedule C but quickly moved to Schedule F+, the highest tax schedule, where it has remained since.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4943

Local Sales Tax Rebates in 2023-24

Sep 16, 2025 - Figure  4 compares these areas ’ incomes and unemployment rates to the state as a whole. Median annual household incomes in rebate-paying jurisdictions are a bit higher than the statewide average. The average unemployment rate in jurisdictions that paid $1 to $20 per resident is very close to the statewide average.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5074