Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

Local Sales Tax Rebates in 2023-24

Sep 16, 2025 - Next, we examine some economic and demographic features of two groups of jurisdictions: (1)  those whose 2023-24 rebate payments totaled $1 to $20 per resident, and (2)  those whose rebate payments totaled more than $20 per resident.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5074

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - After a period of relative calm in the mid ‑ and late ‑1990s, California faced another series of years with acute budget problems following the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession. Although the dot ‑com bust was relatively mild in economic terms, it hit the California budget —which is particularly reliant on the Bay Area ’s technology sector —especially hard.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

Fixing Unemployment Insurance

Dec 2, 2024 - Our assessment, which examines many potential future paths for the state ’s economy, similarly finds deficits are very likely to persist regardless of the trajectory of the economy, with an average outcome yielding deficits of around $2  billion per year for the next five years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4943

Local Sales Tax Rebates in 2023-24 [Publication Details]

Sep 16, 2025 - Some of California's local governments offer partial sales tax rebates to try to boost the amount of taxable sales within their borders. In 2023-24, these rebates totaled $140 million. In this post, we describe the distribution of rebate payments across cities and counties. We also examine some economic and demographic characteristics of rebate-paying jurisdictions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5074

California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - Recognizing that California, in practice, contains many smaller labor markets, we also examine regional variation in wages. Other Aspects of Minimum Wages. This post is not a comprehensive evaluation of the statewide minimum wage.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/3

LAO Revenue-Raising Proposals [Publication Details]

Feb 20, 2008 - Given the magnitude of the budget problem, we examine the state’s existing tax structure in the same way as the spending side--with an eye towards reducing inefficient or ineffective provisions. In this section, we discuss proposals that look at the revenue side of the budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/1769

The 2017-18 Budget: Governor's Gann Limit Proposal

Mar 2, 2017 - As revenues surged during the dot ‑com boom of the late 1990s, however, the state approached the limit. The state had excess revenues in 1999 ‑00, but because appropriations were under the limit in 2000 ‑01, additional Proposition  98 spending and taxpayer rebates were not required.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3596

California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - (We further examine housing affordability for minimum-wage workers in another post .) Most Low-Wage Workers Have No Minor Children. Figure  3 shows that most low-wage workers live in households without any children under 18.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/1