Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - After a period of relative calm in the mid ‑ and late ‑1990s, California faced another series of years with acute budget problems following the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession. Although the dot ‑com bust was relatively mild in economic terms, it hit the California budget —which is particularly reliant on the Bay Area ’s technology sector —especially hard.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

The 2022-23 Budget: Supply Chain and Port Infrastructure Proposals

Feb 15, 2022 - For example, funding overtime would expand the available testing slots immediately, increasing DMV ’s testing capacity from 5,000 tests monthly to  8,800 tests monthly for a year. In the long term, the department could stabilize testing availability and expand testing capacity by having dedicated
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4540

Fixing Unemployment Insurance

Dec 2, 2024 - Tax System Has Not Withstood the Test of Time Tax System Dates Back to 1984. California ’s state ‑federal UI program was first enacted after the Great Depression. The state ’s modern UI  tax system dates back to 1984, when the state instituted a new tax system to conform with federal UI changes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4943

California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - We assess the pseudo-out-of-sample prediction errors for each specification using the monthly CPS from January to December 2022 as our training set and the monthly CPS from January to December 2023 as our test set.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/4

The 2025-26 Budget: California’s Film Tax Credit

Feb 28, 2025 - Finally, California and New York ’s programs tend to stand out as having the most additional requirements such as diversity and workforce development plans, although the tax credit programs outside the U.S. that we analyzed do have cultural tests relating primarily to hiring a certain number of local crewmembers and/or executives.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5000

The 2017-18 Budget: Governor's Gann Limit Proposal

Mar 2, 2017 - As revenues surged during the dot ‑com boom of the late 1990s, however, the state approached the limit. The state had excess revenues in 1999 ‑00, but because appropriations were under the limit in 2000 ‑01, additional Proposition  98 spending and taxpayer rebates were not required.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3596

The 2024-25 Budget: Governor's Office of Business and Economic Development

Feb 20, 2024 - Testing an expansion of the traditional California Competes model may have been reasonable a few years ago when the state was flush with resources. In today’s environment, however, it is not prudent.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4846

How High? Adjusting California’s Cannabis Taxes

Dec 17, 2019 - First, testing labs verify the potency of cannabis products. (As we understand it, these tests rarely find substantial differences between labeled and actual cannabinoid content. More commonly, products fail lab tests for other reasons, such as high levels of pesticides.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4125