California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - The current discrepancy over the size of the state ’s budget deficit —$18  billion under the Legislative Analyst ’s Office estimate versus $3  billion in the Governor ’s budget —fits squarely within that pattern.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - However, our Fiscal Outlook revenue forecast, shown in Figure  2 , reflects a smaller, temporary upgrade which reverses beginning in 2026 ‑ 27 —resulting in 2026 ‑27 revenues being in line with budget act estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - This would consist of two amounts: $13. 5  b illion in the BSA and $2. 3  b illion in the SFEU. The administration currently estimates a very small “true down ” to the BSA in 2017 ‑18, although that may change at the time of the May Revision.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

Long-term Capacity for Debt Payments Under Proposition 2

Dec 21, 2017 - These additional General Fund payments have been counted toward Proposition  2. The 2017 ‑18 budget paid the last installment of the funds in this agreement. Estimates of Future Proposition  2 Debt Funding No Added Debt Funding Requirements in 2017 ‑18.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3727

The 2024-25 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

Mar 20, 2024 - In addition, the 2017 ‑18 budget package authorized a plan to borrow $6  billion from the state ’s cash resources to make a one ‑time supplemental payment to CalPERS. The state ’s repayments on this borrowing plan, although not technically pension payments, are also considered eligible for Proposition  2 requirements.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4887

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - Figure 2 LAO May 2018 Economic Growth Scenario a Percent Change Unless Otherwise Indicated 2017
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Proposals

Apr 26, 2021 - (For comparison, the BSA balance would have totaled $18  billion under 2020 ‑21 Governor ’s Budget . This means the level would not quite reach the pre-COVID-19 total.) Across the budget window, the state would need to make required BSA deposits of $7.6  billion, which has three components: $1  Billion True Up for 2019 ‑20.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4418

Evolution of the Balance of the Budget Stabilization Account

Nov 14, 2018 - In 2017 ‑18, only a mandatory deposit was made. Finally, in 2018 ‑19 the Legislature again made both a mandatory and an optional deposit. Balance in 2018 ‑19 Now Slightly Below 10  Percent of General Fund Taxes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3900

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Governor’s Budget Roughly Balanced on Higher Revenues In November, We Anticipated the State Faced an $18   Billion Deficit. In our November Fiscal Outlook report, we estimated that the state faced an $18  billion budget problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101