The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - As shown in Figure  1 , many signs of an overly exuberant stock market are present today: measures of whether stocks are “expensive ” are at historically high levels, investors are borrowing more to buy stocks, and households are more invested in the stock market than they have been in at least 70  years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

Fiscal Outlook Addendum: CalPERS

Nov 18, 2015 - By rejecting the faster shift to a 6.5 percent discount rate, the CalPERS action mitigates some of the near-term budget risk for retirement funding we discuss in today 's Fiscal Outlook . As we state in the Fiscal Outlook (p. 44 of the pdf version), the plan adopted today by the CalPERS board "would not necessarily increase costs above our assumptions between now and 2019-20 " because it changes the system 's discount rates so gradually.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3308

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - While not all of these amounts represent lower state spending over the long term, they do result in savings today at a cost in the future. As a result, we count them as spending‑related solutions. We estimate the proposed budget includes about $3 billion in reversions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

An Extraordinary Moment in California's Fiscal History

Apr 11, 2019 - Because the MCO tax package leverages federal Medicaid matching funds, the Governor ’s nonproposal in this area has the effect of leaving money on the table. Therefore, we think the Legislature should strongly consider extending the MCO tax package even in the absence of a proposal to do so from the Governor.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4003

The 2024-25 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2024 - By pulling back substantially on one-time and temporary spending, as well as making some ongoing reductions, the Governor ’s May Revision shrinks the state ’s projected deficits from around $30  billion (our December 2023 estimates) to an average of less than $10  billion (our estimates today).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4907

The 2019-20 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - In recent years, the state share of costs has been increasing for Medi ‑Cal ’s optional expansion as a result of scheduled reductions in federal matching funds. Similarly, in the next couple of years, the state ’s share of costs for the Children ’s Health Insurance Program also will increase as the federal share declines.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3896

The 2020-21 Budget: California's Spring Fiscal Outlook

May 8, 2020 - Another way to conceptualize the “current service level ” is to consider the level of benefits and services being provided by the state today (rather than those that will be provided in the future under law).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4228

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - We begin by reviewing the evolution of the budget condition, detailing how the outlook deteriorated from roughly balanced in January to a deficit today. Then, we summarize the proposals the Governor puts forward to address the budget problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2016-17 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Debt Proposal

Feb 24, 2016 - Compared to the Governor’s approach, our alternative that does not require an employee match may allow the state to address this problem at a lower cost. This approach may also preserve the state’s ability to change these benefits in the future.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3363