The 2026-27 Budget: Proposition 98 Guarantee and K-12 Spending Plan

Feb 4, 2026 - The state, however, cannot predict the timing of such a decline. The potential forecasting errors are larger in 2026 ‑27 than in 2025 ‑26 because the 2026 ‑27 estimates must make assumptions further into the future, and the state does not yet have any tax collection data for the year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5110

Assessing a Shift to Enrollment-Based School Funding

Jan 6, 2026 - Overall, our analysis finds that shifting to enrollment ‑based funding would be somewhat more predictable and reduce some administrative burdens for LEAs, but likely would have a negative effect on student attendance over the long run.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5100

Analyzing Recent Changes to State Support for Fiscally Distressed Districts

Dec 20, 2018 - Providing Grants Undermines Predictability of Oversight Process. The state ’s traditional oversight process requires districts to follow a predictable series of steps before seeking state support. By contrast, the state ’s recent actions create precedent for aiding districts at unscheduled times and for unspecified reasons.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3914

The 2025-26 Budget: Expanded Learning Opportunities Program

Feb 20, 2025 - This  structure provides a great degree of predictability for Tier 1 districts and for state costs, but results in a highly variable Tier  2 rate. In  the last three years, the Tier 2 rate has decreased 23  percent (from $2,054 to $1,580).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4977

Climate Change Impacts Across California - K-12 Education

Apr 5, 2022 - For instance, the Legislature could decide that because districts, charter schools, and child care centers should be able to plan and budget for the more predictable fiscal impacts of changing climate conditions, they should cover costs such as increasing utility bills and planned facility modifications within their operational budgets and existing state programs (such as the School Facilities Program).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4586

Climate Change Impacts Across California - Crosscutting Issues

Apr 5, 2022 - A recent scientific  study  by United States Geological Survey researchers predicted that under scenarios of three feet to six feet of sea‑level rise, up to two‑thirds of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4575

The 2018-19 Budget: Proposition 98 Outlook

Nov 15, 2017 - (Short ‑term trends in the stock market, however, are particularly challenging to predict.) Near ‑Term Outlook Assumes Growth in State Revenue. Consistent with our economic assumptions, we estimate that state General Fund revenue will grow in the near term.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3716

The 2017-18 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 13, 2017 - While the proposal accomplishes two county priorities —making counties ’ costs relatively predictable and generally aligning counties ’ costs with available revenues —there may be simpler ways to accomplish these goals.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3669

The 2019-20 Budget: Proposition 98 Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - (We note that the statutory COLA has been difficult to predict, with the actual COLA rate, as locked down in April each year, exceeding Moody ’s fall consensus projection the past few years.) Under Recession Scenario, Minimum Guarantee Drops in 2020 ‑21 and 2021 ‑22.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3897

Update on the Progress of the CalSTRS Funding Plan

Nov 18, 2021 - In addition, a fixed proportional split would result in more predictable changes to both the state ’s and employers ’ contribution rates in response to future actuarial gains and losses. Allow CalSTRS to Adopt a Standard Amortization Policy to Address Future UAO.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4475