The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The federal administration currently is renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement, an agreement that eliminates many barriers to the exchange of goods among the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. These negotiations are ongoing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2018-19 Budget: California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 2, 2018 - Directs California Health Benefit Exchange to Produce a Report on Improving Individual Market Affordability. Budget legislation directs the state ’s health benefits exchange, known as Covered California, to develop options for providing additional financial assistance to low ‑ and middle ‑income residents to promote access to health insurance coverage.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3870/6

Federal Spending in California

Jan 18, 2017 - Payments to Private Entities and Universities are payments the federal government makes to businesses and universities in exchange for goods and services (through contracts) or to fund research and development (primarily, through grants).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3531/3

New Inflation Poses Not So New Budget Risk

Dec 15, 2022 - First, as Harvard economist Jason Furman has pointed out, the U.S. states —including California —are open economies with fixed exchange rates against the rest of the nation. This means that a portion of any inflation created by the tax rebate program will be exported to the rest of the U.S.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4653

Fiscal Outlook: Medi-Cal

Nov 15, 2017 - The state would, however, have the authority to eliminate CHIP and transition its beneficiaries to subsidized coverage through the state ’s health benefit exchange, Covered California. This transition would eliminate any additional General Fund exposure in 2019-20.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3715

The 2016-17 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Debt Proposal

Feb 24, 2016 - Those savings, however, would likely be partially offset by increases in pay granted to employees in exchange for employees sharing in costs of prefunding the benefits. Compared to the Governor’s approach, our alternative that does not require an employee match may allow the state to address this problem at a lower cost.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3363

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762