California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - Dutz et al. (2022) use a Norwegian survey to assess the performance of a variety of models that predict survey nonrespon se based on this type of assumption. They find that methods based on conventional econometric models perform at least as well as methods based on machine learning models.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/4

The 2025-26 Budget: Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development

Mar 18, 2025 - During the first round of CA RISE grants, REDF rated the 161 ESEs that applied based on the legally required criteria: strength of the business model, employment program model, leadership, and financial stability.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5018

California’s First Film Tax Credit Program

Sep 29, 2016 - Bureau of Economic Analysis maintains such a model, the Regional Input –Output Modeling System (RIMS II). This model produces “multipliers ” that are used to estimate how much a region ’s economy might be expected to grow given an increase in spending by a specified industry.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3502

The 2017-18 Budget: Evaluating the State-County Assessors' Partnership Agreement Program

Mar 27, 2017 - We developed an econometric model to estimate the effect of SCAPAP participation on growth in taxable property values of cities in participating counties. Our model attempts to explain annual changes in taxable property values based on changes in residential and commercial building permits, home prices, and home sales.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3632

The 2026-27 Budget: CDTFA’s Cannabis and Tobacco Programs

Feb 23, 2026 - For example, when Proposition  64 (2016) established the excise tax on cannabis, it followed this standard model by authorizing continuous appropriations for the Cannabis Tax Program from the Cannabis Tax Fund.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5132

The 2024-25 Budget: Governor's Office of Business and Economic Development

Feb 20, 2024 - Testing an expansion of the traditional California Competes model may have been reasonable a few years ago when the state was flush with resources. In today’s environment, however, it is not prudent.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4846

How High? Adjusting California’s Cannabis Taxes

Dec 17, 2019 - Set Up Structure of Model. We created a simple model connecting changes in tax rates to changes in key market outcomes, ultimately resulting in changes in tax revenue. In particular, our model considers the following sequence of events: First, we adjust for various changes —such as price declines —that could occur in the legal cannabis market between the most recent data available and the time when tax rate changes could go into effect.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4125

The 2023-24 Budget: Considering Inflation's Effects on State Programs

Nov 16, 2022 - In the Department of Developmental Services (DDS), although the Legislature recently enacted a plan to support rate models developed in a 2019 study (and updated to 2021‑22 levels), under current law, providers would only receive rate adjustments based on future legislative decisions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4647

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

Evaluating State Economic Stimulus Proposals

Feb 1, 2021 - In place of learning from the past, other types of economic studies attempt to use models to estimate economic benefits under certain specific assumptions, which may or may not be accurate. This approach has many significant drawbacks.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4331