California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

CalFacts 2024 [Publication Details]

Dec 2, 2024 - CalFacts presents a wide range of facts and trends about the state's economy, finances, and programs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/4942

Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - By most measures, the recession of the early 1990s was more severe than the dot ‑com bust in the early 2000s. For example, unemployment in California reached 9. 7  p ercent in mid ‑ to late ‑1992, but peaked at 6. 9  p ercent after the dot ‑com bust.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

Whether or Not to Tap Reserves to Solve Estimated Budget Problem Emerges as Key Fiscal Decision Facing California’s Legislature

Apr 19, 2023 - Other downturns, such as the 2001 so-called dot-com recession, had severe fiscal implications while inflicting somewhat milder economic damage. The 2008 Great Recession had brutal effects on both the state ’s economy and budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4762

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - On a net basis, these items slightly improve the budget’s bottom line. Neither our November estimates nor the administration ’s estimates included any costs associated with the devastating wildfires in Southern California, as both were developed before those wildfires began.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

The 2022-23 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - Significant Underlying Net Cost Growth Underlying Net Cost Growth Averaging Around $900 Million Annually Throughout the Forecast Window. Underlying net cost growth reflects the fiscal impact of changes in the Medi ‑Cal caseload and per ‑enrollee costs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4474

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - Safety Net Reserve. The Governor also proposes withdrawing the entire balance of the Safety Net Reserve—$900 million. Withdrawing the entire balance of the Safety Net Reserve may not be consistent with legislative intent.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2019-20 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 14, 2018 - As a result of the dot ‑com bust and ensuing recession in 2001, state revenues declined precipitously. The very next year, looking to budget year 2002 ‑03, our Fiscal Outlook found the state ’s surplus had disappeared, and instead, the budget faced a deficit of $12. 4  b illion for the upcoming year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3896

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Revenue Outlook

May 12, 2018 - Preliminary Franchise Tax Board data show that net capital gains in 2016 totaled $110 billion. We estimate that net capital gains increase to $150 billion in 2017 and $162 billion in 2018, driven primarily by recent increases in stock market values.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3830