California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - In this context, the two main parts of the Arellano and Bonhomme (2017) model are (1)  a set of equations that predict the conditional quantiles of the wage distribution, and (2)  an equation that predicts whether each worker responds to the survey ’s wage questions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/4

Updating the California Necessities Index

Aug 14, 2025 - While future data availability cannot be fully predicted, certain statistics are statistically more reliable than others and ar e thus more likely to be available in the future. Options Considered Based on the criteria discussed above, we consider the following options for replacing the CNI.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5065

The 2024-25 Budget: Governor's Office of Business and Economic Development

Feb 20, 2024 - We estimate the Governor ’s budget predicts the state ’s 2024-25 budget will need to address a $58 billion deficit . In December, our office predicted a somewhat large deficit of $68 billion . Since then, recent data has continued to point to the budget problem being larger than the Governor’s budget assumes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4846

California’s First Film Tax Credit Program

Sep 29, 2016 - For example, the model predicts that one out of every two independent feature films that applied for a film tax credit would have likely been made in California regardless of whether or not they received a credit.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3502

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - As we discussed in November, accurately predicting the future path of the economy is not possible. The consensus scenario we use is only one possible path for the U.S. and California economies. Key Issues for the Future Trajectory of the State ’s Economy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

The 2020-21 May Revision: Revenue Proposals in the 2020-21 May Revision

May 20, 2020 - Revenues From NOL Suspensions and Credit Limits Would Be Difficult to Predict. We have found that predicting the revenue effects of corporation tax changes accurately is challenging. Changes to NOLs and credits are particularly challenging because they are concentrated with a relatively small number of corporations.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4238

The 2019-20 May Revision: Sales Tax Exemptions for Diapers and Menstrual Products

May 12, 2019 - However, businesses, consumers, and local governments would benefit from predictability in these policies. If tax expenditures —particularly those with fiscal effects as modest as these —are worth enacting, then they are worth enacting for longer than two years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4040

Common Claims About Proposition 13

Sep 19, 2016 - Limits on assessed value growth result in lower, more predictable property tax payments for homeowners that do not move often. This would seem to promote homeownership for these households, particularly retirees with fixed incomes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3497

The Property Tax Inheritance Exclusion

Oct 9, 2017 - While the extent of this increase is difficult to predict, if the relationship suggested by Figure  2 is true it is possible that annual property tax losses attributable to inheritance exclusions could increase by several hundred million dollars over the next decade.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3706

Evaluating State Economic Stimulus Proposals

Feb 1, 2021 - Importantly, assessing these models ’ reliability can be difficult because there often are major practical barriers to checking the assumptions and predictions against real ‑world outcomes. For example, differentiating a particular policy ’s effect on employment from the variety of other complex factors that drive employment changes is very difficult.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4331