The 2026-27 Budget: Proposition 98 Guarantee and K-12 Spending Plan

Feb 4, 2026 - Investors are borrowing large sums to buy stocks, and households are more invested in the stock market than at any time in at least 70 years. Historically, these signs have preceded stock market downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5110

The 2026-27 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges [Publication Details]

Nov 19, 2025 - The state could use the one-time funds to build budget resiliency, which seems especially important given the risks of a stock market downturn. Reports by Policy Area
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Detail/5093

The 2026-27 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges

Nov 19, 2025 - These aspects of the budget —and the state ’s dependence on the stock market —make the upcoming year especially precarious. A  decline in the value of the tech companies leading the stock market could rapidly reduce state revenues and the Proposition  98 guarantee.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5093

The 2025‑26 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges

Nov 20, 2024 - Stock compensation has become an increasingly important form of pay among California ’s high ‑income workers, especially those at major technology companies. This form of compensation is tied to the company ’s stock price, so it rises when stock prices rise.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4940

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - Instead, the gains appear largely tied to the booming stock market, a situation which can change rapidly and without warning. The  administration appears to share some of these concerns, noting recent job losses among high ‑wage workers and the risks posed by the inherent volatility of tax receipts tied to stock market gains.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

The 2021-22 Budget: Public School Restrooms Feminine Hygiene Products Mandate

Mar 1, 2021 - This estimate includes the following components: Stocking Restrooms With Feminine Hygiene Products. For 2018 ‑19, the Commission found the cost of stocking restrooms with feminine hygiene products to be $1. 90 p er female student in grades 6 ‑12.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4392

The 2018-19 Budget: Proposition 98 Outlook

Nov 15, 2017 - We also assume that stock market prices, which have risen substantially over the past two years (2016 and 2017), will stagnate over the coming two years. (Short ‑term trends in the stock market, however, are particularly challenging to predict.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3716

The 2025-26 Budget: Proposition 98 Guarantee and K-12 Spending Plan

Feb 13, 2025 - The Governor ’s proposal also recognizes that the guarantee is unusually volatile in 2024 ‑25 due to (1)  the state ’s reliance on unpredictable stock market growth for its higher revenue estimates and (2)  the high sensitivity of the guarantee to changes in revenue estimates.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4963

Volatility of the Personal Income Tax Base

Feb 8, 2017 - Wages and salaries include commissions, tips, bonuses, and gains from exercising stock options. Dividends, Interest, and Rent. BEA ’s personal income measure includes cash payments of dividends, interest, and rent.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3548

A Review of the CalSTRS Funding Plan: Funding Plan May Not Meet Principle of “Shared Responsibility”

Feb 2, 2016 - This scenario, however, would be inconsistent with the administration ’s economic and revenue forecasts, which generally have assumed continuing stock price growth. Changes Might Be Necessary to Reflect Legislative Intent.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3337