Building Reserves to Prepare for a Recession

Mar 7, 2018 - Second, the dot ‑com bust involved much more significant losses in the stock market, which affect capital gains revenues. General Fund Revenue Volatility Has Likely Increased Since Last Recession. Since the Great Recession ended, changes in the state ’s policies and economy have likely increased the volatility of General Fund revenue.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3769

The 2018-19 May Revision: LAO Economic Outlook

May 12, 2018 - The typical PE ratio since 1990 is 21 (19 if the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s is excluded). Similar to the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio is used to gauge if home prices are in line with underlying demand for housing.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3829

Managing California’s Cash

Sep 3, 2019 - One key benefit of S B  84 , for example, is that it likely will have a substantial fiscal benefit to the state —the loan is likely to result in billions of dollars in savings to the state over time.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4092

Fixing Unemployment Insurance

Dec 2, 2024 - The outstanding loan is very likely to grow by billions of dollars over the next several years before the federal surcharge contributions are large enough to begin making progress toward repayment. During this period, state General Fund interest costs will likely be about $1  billion per year.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4943

The 2020-21 Budget: Taxation of E-Cigarettes

Feb 24, 2020 - The 2020-21 Budget: Taxation of E-Cigarettes Effects on Vaping and Smoking Tax Likely Would Reduce E ‑Cigarette Use Substantially. Our review of available evidence suggests that the proposed tax likely would reduce both youth and adult e ‑cigarette use substantially.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4171

The 2022-23 Budget: Fuel Price and Other Fiscal Relief Options

May 12, 2022 - Providing tax refunds to vehicle owners would be less directly linked to fuel consumption, but would provide some related relief given that these individuals likely drive to some degree. Providing rebates to zero ‑emission vehicle owners (as included in the Governor ’s proposal), however, would not have any link to gas price  burden.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4597

Income Mobility in California Across Generations

Jan 4, 2017 - Compared to the country as a whole, Californians born in the top fifth of the income distribution are less likely to remain in the top two–fifths (53 percent rather than 58 percent) and more likely to end up in the bottom two–fifths (30 percent rather than 24 percent).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3518

A Key Interaction Between Sales Taxes and Other Taxes on Cannabis Retailers

Dec 17, 2019 - Like local business taxes, state and local sales taxes also apply to retail gross receipts. State law, however, does not exclude local business taxes from this definition of gross receipts. As a result, although the two types of taxes apply to conceptually similar taxable events —retail sales —and have the same point of collection, they are based on two substantially different definitions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4124

Evaluating State Economic Stimulus Proposals

Feb 1, 2021 - New public spending is likely to be more effective at stimulating the economy during and immediately following a recession rather than late in an economic expansion. This is because the increased public spending may be less likely to displace private sector spending due to the amount of slack in the economy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4331

California’s Low-Wage Workers and Minimum Wage

Mar 11, 2024 - Accordingly, respondents are more likely to respond to the wage questions in Februa ry and March than in other months. Seasonal hiring patterns can vary across the wage distribution, so this exclusion restriction is not as airtight as the first one.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4878/4