Assessing California’s Climate Policies—Cap-and-Trade Reauthorization

May 7, 2025 - (This estimate is based on allowance scenarios CARB has identified as part of its forthcoming rulemaking and assumes that allowance prices remain between the current price floor and ceiling, adjusted by 5  percent annually, consistent with current CARB regulations.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5042

The 2024-25 Budget: California Community Colleges

Feb 21, 2024 - The intent of this policy is to provide a funding floor for districts experiencing enrollment declines. In addition, because the hold harmless amount will not grow by COLA each year, the intent is to eventually move all districts off the hold harmless provision and into the regular SCFF formula calculations (whereby districts have incentives to enroll low ‑income students and have good outcomes for all students).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4853

The 2024-25 Budget: Cap-and-Trade Expenditure Plan

Feb 20, 2024 - Prior to spring 2023, the administration based its estimates on an assumption that all cap ‑and ‑trade allowances would sell at the auction floor price. This methodology resulted in DOF regularly underestimating revenues quite notably, as allowances have sold well above the floor price for the last several years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4847

California’s Cap-and-Trade Program: Frequently Asked Questions

Oct 24, 2023 - CARB sets a “floor price ” (minimum price) for which an allowance can be sold, but historically allowances frequently have sold above that price due to buyer interest. For example, in the August 2023 auction, CARB set the per-allowance floor price at $22.21 but allowances ultimately sold for $35.22 each.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4811

The 2023-24 Budget: Cap-and-Trade Expenditure Plan and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund Revenue Estimates

Mar 2, 2023 - The administration assumes all allowances will sell at the floor price, which is not a typical scenario as allowances have sold above the floor price over the last couple of years. Under our base revenue scenario (which represents stable allowance prices), we estimate total revenues over the two-year period wou ld be $2  billion higher than assumed under the
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4730

Assessing California's Climate Policies—The 2022 Scoping Plan Update

Jan 4, 2023 - An over ‑supply of allowances eventually will result in a significant drop in their market price —likely to levels near or below the floor price established by CARB. When prices would drop to these levels is unclear, but they likely would approach the floor as market participants (such as covered entities) become more confident that there will be excess allowances available through 2030.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4656

The 2022-23 Budget: Cap-and-Trade Revenue Update

Apr 29, 2022 - In our January analysis, The 2022-23 Budget: Cap-and-Trade Expenditure Plan , we identified different cap-and-trade auction revenue scenarios, including a “base” revenue scenario where allowance prices remain relatively stable and a low revenue scenario where allowances prices drop to the floor.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4591

Climate Change Impacts Across California - Crosscutting Issues

Apr 5, 2022 - These might include purchasing additional air filters and masks to protect workers from smoke, incurring higher utility costs from an increased need for air conditioning, changing traditional hours of operation, providing additional training to help prevent and identify heat ‑related illnesses, or modifying facilities to accommodate periodic flooding (such as by moving sensitive equipment to higher floors).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4575

Climate Change Impacts Across California - Workers and Employers

Apr 5, 2022 - For example, employers might need to purchase additional air filters and masks to protect workers fr om smoke, incur higher utility costs from an increased need for air conditioning, provide additional training to help prevent and identify heat ‑related illnesses, or modify facilities to accommodate periodic flooding (such as by moving sensitive equipment to higher floors).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4587

The 2022-23 Budget: Analysis of Major CCC Proposals

Feb 11, 2022 - Assessment In Proposing a New Funding Floor, Governor ’s Goal Is Laudable. Based on preliminary 2020 ‑21 Chancellor ’s Office data, hold harmless districts generally are funded notably above the amount they generate through SCFF.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4531