California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - After the dot-com bust and the Great Recession, it took four and five years, respectively, for revenues to recover. Incorporating revenue risk into the budget now, therefore, reflects prudence, not pessimism.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2022-23 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - The 2022-23 Budget: Medi-Cal Fiscal Outlook The 2022‑23 Budget Medi ‑Cal Fiscal Outlook This post describes our fiscal outlook for Medi ‑Cal, the major factors that we expect to drive changes in General Fund spending in Medi ‑Cal, and a number of our key underlying assumptions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4474

The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2025 - Ongoing solutions in Medi-Cal reflect about two-thirds of the total. The largest service-related solutions in Medi-Cal include freezing enrollment for adults with unsatisfactory immigration status, charging monthly premiums for the same population, and reinstating the asset test for seniors and individuals with disabilities.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5052

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - Implementing Immigrant Population ‑Related H.R. 1 Policies in Medi ‑Cal. As part of the state ’s required implementation of H.R. 1, the Governor proposes taking two discretionary actions related to immigrants that reduce state costs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - Major categories of borrowing in the budget  include: Medi ‑Cal Maneuver ($4.4   Billion). Under state law, the administration can transfer funds to the Medical Provider Interim Payment (MPIP) Fund to help cover an appropriation deficiency in Medi ‑Cal.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - This budget problem is driven by two key factors: higher baseline spending, most notably in Medi‑Cal, and lower revenues, reflecting diminished expectations for both the personal income tax and the corporation tax.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2025-26 Budget: Undertaking Fiscal Oversight

Feb 24, 2025 - In contrast, oversight of Medi-Cal likely requires discrete examinations of factors like eligibility, caseload, services, and utilization to understand the program benefits. For instance, California Advancing and Innovating Medi-Cal, a recent initiative to test new ways of delivering services, could be a focus of Medi -Cal oversight.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4983

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - Some of the largest budget solutions in the June budget package involved the MCO tax, a tax on health plans that supports the Medi ‑Cal program. Last year ’s budget notably increased the size of the MCO tax, generating more revenue for Medi ‑Cal.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - For California, the dot ‑com era —when stocks rose and then fell precipitously in response to widespread adoption of the internet —offers the most salient example. The internet has proven to be a transformative technology and, yet, the stock market ’s initial reaction was clearly overly exuberant.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Sep 6, 2024 - The net revenue generated by the tax was to (1)  help offset General Fund spending in Medi ‑Cal and (2)  augment funding for Medi ‑Cal and other health programs. Recognizing the substantial budget problem facing the state, this year ’s spending plan makes three key changes to this package.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4922