The 2024-25 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2024 - Figure  2 displays the distribution of the most likely revenue outcomes over the multiyear (in gray). The dark line shows the administration ’s forecast of revenues in the May Revision. The light green line shows the amount of revenue the state would need to “break even ” —that is, the level of revenue the state would need to be able to afford the level of spending proposed in the May Revision.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4907

The 2024-25 Budget: Deficit Update

Feb 20, 2024 - For example, the administration frequently displayed “operating surpluses ” in its multiyear forecasts excluding this type of spending —implying that the administration understood that the state could not afford all of the commitments under its own projections, but the state could afford the ongoing budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4850

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - Put another way, despite the operating surpluses we display in Figure 6, the budget might not have much capacity for new, ongoing spending that does not meet the SAL requirements. Would the Budget Still Break Even if Revenues Are Lower?
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2023 - Figure  2 displays the distribution of the most likely revenue outcomes over the multiyear (in light purple). As seen in the figure, while the revenues required to balance the budget (in green) are optimistic, but plausible, in the budget window, they are improbable in the out ‑years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4772

Strong Tax Collections Belie California's Challenging Fiscal Outlook

Apr 26, 2022 - As displayed in Figure  1, this spread briefly fell into negative territory in early April 2022, from 1.29  percentage points on October 8, 2021. While a temporary yield curve inversion alone is hardly a comprehensive basis on which to make state fiscal policy, its occurrence is cautionary.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4590

The 2023-24 California Spending Plan: Other Provisions

Nov 8, 2023 - Specifically, it includes a 65  percent year-to-year drop in federal fund support (from $81  million to $28  million) due to the expiration of limited-term funding, which is more than offset by a 146  percent increase in General Fund support (from $50  million to $123  million).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4814

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Figure  1 displays the distribution of most likely revenue outcomes over the multiyear (in grey). As seen in the figure, the revenues required to balance the budget (in red) are considerably above the most likely scenario in all but 2026 ‑27.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2022-23 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 16, 2022 - The Surplus Figure  3 displays the major spending decisions that the Governor made in allocating state discretionary funds (including proposals carried forward from January). It includes: (1)  the $34  billion in spending choices using the overall General Fund surplus (this figure excludes reserve deposits, tax refunds, and debt payments, which are shown instead in Figure   4) and (2)  the $33  billion surplus within the school and community college budget.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4598

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 16, 2022 - Figure  3 displays our estimates of the budget ’s condition over the outlook period. As the figure shows, in addition to the $24  billion budget problem the state faces in 2023 ‑24, the state faces annual operating deficits which decline from $17  billion to $8  billion by 2026 ‑27.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4646

The 2021-22 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2021 - Major Spending Choices Figure  2 displays the major budgetary decisions that the Governor made in allocating state and federal money, totaling $85  billion. It includes (1)  the General Fund surplus, (2)  school and community college spending, (3)  the American Rescue Plan (ARP) fiscal relief funds, and (4)  ARP capital projects funds.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4432