The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - (Figure 3 does not display an estimate for total reserves in 2022 ‑23 because this level largely will be determined by discretionary choices made by the Legislature. Total reserves include the Safety Net Reserve and the enacted balance of the SFEU.)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2023-24 Budget: Considering Inflation's Effects on State Programs

Nov 16, 2022 - One of the most common and broad‑based measures is the consumer price index (CPI), which reflects the cost of typical goods and services purchased by households. The California CPI was 7.5 percent as of the third quarter of 2022, compared to less than 3 percent over the previous five years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4647

Strong Tax Collections Belie California's Challenging Fiscal Outlook

Apr 26, 2022 - As displayed in Figure  1, this spread briefly fell into negative territory in early April 2022, from 1.29  percentage points on October 8, 2021. While a temporary yield curve inversion alone is hardly a comprehensive basis on which to make state fiscal policy, its occurrence is cautionary.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4590

The 2024-25 Budget: Deficit Update

Feb 20, 2024 - Specifically, our forecast is about $24 billion below the Governor’s budget across 2022‑23 to 2024‑25. All else equal, this means the budget problem is likely to be higher at the time of the May Revision.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4850

The 2022-23 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 16, 2022 - However, at the same time, the Governor ’s May Revision leaves $3.4  billion in unaddressed SAL requirements in 2022 ‑23. Figure 7 SAL Estimates in the 2022 ‑23 May Revision (In Billions)
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4598

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 16, 2022 - Figure  3 displays our estimates of the budget ’s condition over the outlook period. As the figure shows, in addition to the $24  billion budget problem the state faces in 2023 ‑24, the state faces annual operating deficits which decline from $17  billion to $8  billion by 2026 ‑27.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4646

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Assessment

Feb 15, 2023 - Figure  1 displays the distribution of most likely revenue outcomes over the multiyear (in grey). As seen in the figure, the revenues required to balance the budget (in red) are considerably above the most likely scenario in all but 2026 ‑27.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4687

The 2023-24 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2023 - Figure  2 displays the distribution of the most likely revenue outcomes over the multiyear (in light purple). As seen in the figure, while the revenues required to balance the budget (in green) are optimistic, but plausible, in the budget window, they are improbable in the out ‑years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4772

The 2024-25 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Dec 7, 2023 - This reduction includes $9.6  billion in 2022 ‑23, $7 billion in 2023 ‑24, and $4.4 billion in 2024 ‑25. The magnitude of the downward revision in 2022 ‑23 is unprecedented for a fiscal year that is already over.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4819

The 2024-25 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2024 - Figure  2 displays the distribution of the most likely revenue outcomes over the multiyear (in gray). The dark line shows the administration ’s forecast of revenues in the May Revision. The light green line shows the amount of revenue the state would need to “break even ” —that is, the level of revenue the state would need to be able to afford the level of spending proposed in the May Revision.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4907