The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - Instead, much of the bounce appears to be tied to special forms of pay for high ‑income workers, such as bonuses and stock  compensation. Booming Stock Market Driving Income Growth. The recent run ‑up in the stock market, which appears tied to optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, is a primary driver of the rapid growth in pay to high ‑income workers.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - The reason for the reduction is the recent voter approval of Proposition  35 (2024), which requires the state to spend less MCO tax money on offsetting General Fund spending and more money on provider rate increases.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - This change need not occur immediately as it will take time for the state to build up reserves through future economic cycles. As such, we suggest the Legislature ask the voters to authorize a scheduled, phased‑in increase: 20 percent to take effect immediately after the next statewide election, 25 percent in 2030, and increasing by 5 percent every five years until the cap reaches a maximum of 50 percent in 2055.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2020-21 Budget: Overview of the California Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 5, 2020 - The budget projects IHSS total costs to increase from $13. 6  b illion in 2019 ‑ 20 t o $15. 2  b illion in 2020 ‑21 (11. 7  p ercent). General Fund costs are estimated to slightly increase between 2019 ‑20 ($4. 3  b illion) and 2020 ‑21 ($4. 5  b illion).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4263

The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2025 - Specifically, our revenue estimates exceed the administration ’s estimates by $5  billion to $7  billion annually from 2026-27 to 2028-29 —differences we consider very minor given the size of the budget and uncertainty in revenue forecasting.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5052

The 2020-21 Budget: Proposition 2 Debt Payment Proposals

Mar 10, 2020 - Figure 5 shows how our recommendation could work. For example, suppose in some year CalSTRS experiences an annual return of 3  p ercent —which is lower than the assumed rate of 7  p ercent. To make up for this actuarial loss, the board would need to increase the state ’s rate by approximately 2  p ercent of pay, but under law could only raise the rate by 0. 5  p ercent of pay each year over four years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4196

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - Revenues Lower by About $5   Billion. The May Revision downgrades the administration ’s revenue estimates by $5  billion. Revenues for prior and current years are up a total of $6  billion, primarily reflecting stronger ‑than ‑expect personal income tax collections which are running $4  billion ahead of prior projections as of April.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan (Final Version)

Oct 27, 2021 - The Legislature ratified labor agreements with 20 o f the state ’s 21 b argaining units. There are common provisions among all of the agreements that include: Ending Personal Leave Program (PLP) 2020.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4448

The 2021-22 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2021 - Reflecting very strong cash collections in recent months, the May Revision adjusts 2020 ‑21 revenues (and transfers) up by $26.8  billion to $182  billion. This represents a 27  percent increase over 2019 ‑20, the largest single year increase in over four decades.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4432

The 2022-23 Budget: Fiscal Outlook for Schools and Community Colleges

Nov 17, 2021 - The Legislature and Governor previously agreed to ramp up ongoing funding over the next four years —from $1 billion in 2021 ‑22 to about $5 billion by 2025 ‑26. The state could accelerate this schedule, which would give districts more certainty about their funding levels and potentially improve local planning for these  programs.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4473