The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - This  is not a prediction of what will happen —state and federal laws and policies will change in the coming years —but rather serves as a baseline to help the Legislature understand its starting place.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2025-26 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 20, 2024 - This is not a prediction of what will happen —state and federal laws and policies will change in the coming years —but rather serves as a baseline to help the Legislature understand its starting place.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4939

Despite Fiscal Forecasting Uncertainties, Multiyear Budget Planning Essential

May 27, 2021 - While events of the past year show that attempting to predict the future is a fool ’s errand, the value of multiyear fiscal estimates is not in their predictive precision. Rather, policymakers need insight on the condition of the state ’s underlying fiscal operations —annual revenues relative to expenditures —outside of any near-term surplus or deficit.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4443

California's Legislative Analyst's Office and the Value of Independence

Nov 15, 2024 - But since macroeconomic dynamics are multifaceted and context dependent, successfully predicting the scenario that will play out is virtually impossible. Consider as evidence that in just the last several years —during and after the COVID-19 pandemic —consensus macroeconomic forecasts have been wildly off from actual outcomes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4938

The 2022-23 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2022 - LAO Comments Adopting LAO Revenues Mitigates Budget Impacts of a Recession … Although predicting the next recession is impossible, economic indicators currently suggest a heightened risk of recession within two years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4602

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - That is: the state will face revenue downturns in the future, but we can ’t predict when those will occur or how big they will be. This makes the state ’s reserve policy more like an individual saving for retirement.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2022-23 Budget: Initial Comments on the State Appropriations Limit Proposal

Feb 4, 2022 - Other, Difficult to Predict, Factors Also Will Influence the SAL Requirements. That said, many other factors also will change between now and May. For example, special fund tax revenues could be higher or lower, “baseline ” exclusions (spending on exclusions under current law) could be higher or lower, and the limit itself will change in response to new data released in the spring.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4515

The 2021-22 Budget: The Governor’s Proposition 2 Proposals

Apr 26, 2021 - Such predictions are extremely difficult. In the past, our office has examined the historical pattern of financial markets to gauge the range of possible outcomes for capital gains revenue in the budget year and beyond.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4418