The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - As shown in Figure  1 , many signs of an overly exuberant stock market are present today: measures of whether stocks are “expensive ” are at historically high levels, investors are borrowing more to buy stocks, and households are more invested in the stock market than they have been in at least 70  years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2025 - The underlying budget dynamics today are particularly challenging for three reasons. First, revenues have not caught up with expenditures. Second, under our estimates, expenditure growth exceeds estimated revenue growth.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4951

The 2024-25 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 23, 2024 - By pulling back substantially on one-time and temporary spending, as well as making some ongoing reductions, the Governor ’s May Revision shrinks the state ’s projected deficits from around $30  billion (our December 2023 estimates) to an average of less than $10  billion (our estimates today).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4907

The 2025-26 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 17, 2025 - We begin by reviewing the evolution of the budget condition, detailing how the outlook deteriorated from roughly balanced in January to a deficit today. Then, we summarize the proposals the Governor puts forward to address the budget problem.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5044

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - If the Legislature adopts a reserve policy that performs well in half of scenarios but poorly in the other half (that is, we use the median scenario as a benchmark), it would mean there is something like a coin ‑flip chance that the policy would achieve its desired outcomes.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 10, 2021 - For example, how would the administration implement and continue to refine CalAIM in coordination with other major statewide planning initiatives, including the Master Plan for Aging, the Behavioral Health Task Force, and other state efforts related to homelessness?
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4309

The 2023-24 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2023 - (That is, in our view, these costs would not have occurred absent legislative action and as a result do not contribute to the budget problem the Legislature faces today.) Comparison to LAO November Outlook.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4662

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - While not all of these amounts represent lower state spending over the long term, they do result in savings today at a cost in the future. As a result, we count them as spending‑related solutions. We estimate the proposed budget includes about $3 billion in reversions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - While not all of these amounts represent lower state spending over the long term, they do result in savings today at a cost of forgone savings in the future. As a result, we count them as spending-related solutions.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902