The Definition of Qualified Capital Outlay for the State Appropriations Limit

Feb 18, 2022 - There are also some properties that appear to meet the de finition, although perhaps less clearly, like information technology projects. Does the State Need to Own the Asset to Count It as an Exclusion?
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4547

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk January 23, 2026 Tweet Gabriel PetekLegislative Analyst History suggests that fiscal risks can build during times when they are easiest to ignore.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - History suggests that the stock market is prone to overreact to major technological advances, even if the technology itself turns out to be revolutionary. Our Revenue Outlook Builds in Some Insurance Against a Stock Market Downturn.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2024-25 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor’s May Revision

May 17, 2024 - For example, two major proposals raise concerns for our office: the suspension of net operating loss (NOL) de ductions and unallocated state operations reductions. Finally, given that our revenue forecast is somewhat below the administration ’s forecast, we would suggest the Legislature consider whether or not it is comfortable with this downside risk to the state ’s budget picture.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4902

The 2025-26 Budget: Multiyear Budget Outlook

May 24, 2025 - While our revenue forecast is designed to balance the risk of over- and underestimation, history shows that actual revenues can vary from our median projection by billions or even tens of billions of dollars over a multiyear period.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5052

Rethinking California's Reserve Policy

Apr 10, 2025 - This measure substantially improved the state ’s reserve policy, particularly relative to recent history. However, using the tools described in Chapter  1, this policy falls well short of the amount of reserves that are needed.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5028

New Inflation Poses Not So New Budget Risk

Dec 15, 2022 - History suggests that it is difficult for the Fed to weaken demand enough to reduce inflation but not so much as to tip the economy into a recession. This reflects that the Fed ’s tools for implementing changes in monetary policy are blunt and operate with a considerable lag, making attempts at fine-tuning very challenging.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4653

Strong Tax Collections Belie California's Challenging Fiscal Outlook

Apr 26, 2022 - History suggests that this is a daunting task, however, and at least raises the odds of a recession. Financial markets, and the yield curve for U.S. Treasury notes in particular, recently have signaled as much.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4590

The 2022-23 California Spending Plan: The State Appropriations Limit

Sep 30, 2022 - For more information about the history of the appropriations limit, and an analysis of why the SAL is impacting budget decisions today, see our previous reports, here: The State Appropriations Limit .
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4631

The State Appropriations Limit

Apr 21, 2021 - History of SAL SAL Constrained State Spending in Mid ‑1980s. Figure  3 shows historical calculations of the state ’s limit and appropriations subject to the limit. Initially, the SAL had little effect on state budgeting.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4416