The 2026-27 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 19, 2025 - If our estimates hold, the Legislature will face a fourth consecutive year of budget problems —all during a period of overall revenue growth . As it stands —with larger forecasted deficits and many fewer tools available to address them —California ’s budget is undeniably less prepared for downturns.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5091

The 2026-27 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 12, 2026 - That said, recent budgets have set the SFEU bet ween $3.5  billion and $4.5  billion, so the Governor ’s budget proposal to set the balance to $4.5  billion is generally in line with recent policy.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5101

The 2022-23 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook

Nov 17, 2021 - Enhanced Federal Match for Home ‑ and Community ‑Based Services (HCBS). The ARP also included a temporary enhanced federal match rate for HCBS funded through the Medicaid program, which reduces the state ’s share of base program costs for these services by $3 billion.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4472

The 2024-25 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 13, 2024 - Although caseloads under the Governor’s budget are higher than anticipated in June, economic conditions likely do not yet match what the Legislature envisioned when it created the reserve. Moreover, the administration proposes ongoing reductions to CalWORKs despite withdrawing these reserves.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4825

The 2023-24 Budget: Initial Comments on the Governor's May Revision

May 15, 2023 - (In this figure and throughout the report, some of the estimates cited here for the Governor ’s budget might not match estimates provided in our Overview of the Governor ’s Budget , published in January.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4769

California’s Strong Revenue Trends Mask Looming Budget Risk

Jan 23, 2026 - Given that this deficit is estimated to range from $20  billion to $35  billion in the years ahead, addressing it gradually, rather than all at once, reduces fiscal disruption and more readily provides for legislative input and flexibility.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5104

The 2022-23 Budget: State Appropriations Limit Implications

Mar 30, 2022 - Specifically, we modeled these variables (with transformations applied in some cases) using a multivariate normal distribution, with standard deviations and covariances set to match historical levels over the last 40 years.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4583

The 2025-26 Budget: Overview of the Spending Plan

Oct 16, 2025 - All figures in this publication reflect the administration ’s estimates of actions taken through early July 2025, however, we have updated the text to reflect actions taken later in the legislative session.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/5079

The 2021-22 Budget: Overview of the Governor's Budget

Jan 10, 2021 - First, the Legislature may wish to consider whether counties have the capacity to increase their funding for behavioral health to meet the Behavioral Health Continuum grant proposal ’s match requirement without reducing existing services.
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4309

The 2023-24 Budget: California's Fiscal Outlook

Nov 16, 2022 - This means our spending estimates incorporate the fiscal effects of all enacted policies. In addition, we include the fiscal effects of those policies which the Legislature has repeatedly enacted (absent statutory commitments to ongoing  spending).
https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/4646